- BIMCO releases its Shipping Market Overview & Outlook reports on a quarterly basis, focusing on different segments of the shipping industry.
- The March report delves into the container shipping market, providing insights into the supplydemand balance, macro environment, and future outlook.
Supply/Demand Balance
Forecasted Fleet Growth: The container ship fleet is projected to expand by 9.5% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025, totaling a 14.9% growth over the two years. Notably, ships with capacities of 12,000 TEU or more, comprising around 800 vessels, will contribute significantly to this growth, constituting 75% of the total capacity increase.
Recycling Trends: Despite an estimated recycling of 720,000 TEU over the next two years, the forecast for recycling in 2024 has been reduced due to increased demand for ships resulting from Red Sea attacks. Recycling efforts are expected to ramp up in 2025.
Deliveries: Anticipated deliveries in 2024 are set to surpass the previous year’s record, although there may be a slight slowdown in 2025 as the order book diminishes.
Impact of Red Sea Situation
- Increased Demand: The Red Sea crisis has led to a surge in demand for ships in 2024, delaying some recycling efforts until 2025.
- Sailing Speeds: The crisis has also affected average sailing speeds, particularly for main liner ships, resulting in a 4% increase compared to the previous year. However, it is assumed that speeds will normalize in the second half of 2024, leading to lower average speeds in 2025.
- Supply Growth: While supply is forecasted to increase by 9.1% in 2024, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 4.1% in 2025, contingent on the resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Delays in resolving the crisis would also delay the slowing down of ships, impacting supply growth accordingly.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free! Click here to Subscribe
Source: BIMCO
