The maritime security landscape in the Red Sea and Gulf of Guinea (GoG) is marked by escalating threats and vulnerabilities. Recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have underscored the growing risks posed by relatively inexpensive and hard-to-detect drones, reports Container News.
Shipping Routes Disrupted
The impact of these security challenges is tangible. Houthi drone and missile attacks have severely disrupted shipping routes, affecting global trade flows. According to recent data taken by Safety and Shipping Review for 2024 by Allianz Commercial, transits through the Suez Canal dropped by over 42% at the beginning of 2024, with container traffic plummeting by 82% and specialized car-carrying ships in the Red Sea decreasing by more than half compared to the previous year.
According to Castor Vali Risk Management, the use of uncrewed aerial systems and missiles by Houthi militants is escalating the asymmetric threats facing maritime trade. As shipping routes increasingly reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, vessels will pass through the Gulf of Guinea, a region already marked by significant instability. With the potential influx of new, low-cost weapons, there is a growing risk that both the Red Sea and the Gulf of Guinea could become permanent hotspots for maritime insecurity.
Security Compromised
In Nigeria, maritime security is further compromised by a high incidence of piracy. The country accounts for 80% of reported maritime piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, despite legislative efforts such as the Suppression of Piracy and Other Maritime Offences Act (SPOMO) of 2019. Nigeria recorded 35 piracy attacks in 2020, underscoring the ongoing severity of maritime crime despite regulatory measures.
Both regions stand high as for their overall risk profile. The “High” sovereign risk in the Gulf of Guinea and the “Very High” supply chain risk underscore the substantial economic and security challenges faced by countries in the region, while the Red Sea’s Very High sovereign and supply chain risks are exacerbated by sophisticated Houthi attacks.
As maritime trade increasingly reroutes through the Cape of Good Hope due to disruptions in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Guinea faces an exacerbated risk profile. The GoG’s “High” sovereign risk and “Very High” supply chain risk reflect a volatile environment, further complicated by the potential influx of new, inexpensive weapons. The possibility of these regions becoming permanent hotspots is heightened by the convergence of asymmetric threats and existing maritime vulnerabilities.
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Source: Container News
