Maritime Security Risks Shift Across Red Sea, Indian Ocean and Black Sea

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Mfame Editor
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  • MISTO Revision Reflects Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Escalation.
  • Shipping Coalition Flags Renewed Piracy and Houthis Risks.
  • Updated MISTO Highlights Shifting Security Landscape.

The Maritime Industry Security Threat Overview (MISTO) has received an update from key shipping organisations such as BIMCO, the International Chamber of Shipping, INTERCARGO, InterManager, the International Group of P&I Clubs, INTERTANKO, and OCIMF. This update takes into account the rapidly changing security landscape in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Northwest Indian Ocean, and other regions affected by conflict. It’s meant to be used in conjunction with the Best Management Practices for Maritime Security (BMP MS), reports Safety4Sea.

West Africa: Piracy Trends and Niger Delta Risks

  1. A Long-Standing Piracy Challenge: Piracy in this area has deep historical roots in the Niger Delta. While incidents of armed robbery have become less common, they still carry an element of unpredictability.
  2. The Impact of Political and Economic Conditions: The frequency of attacks tends to fluctuate with the stability of onshore conditions. Nigeria has made strides in law enforcement and economic initiatives—backed by shipping partners and foreign navies—which have contributed to a reduction in attacks. However, it’s uncertain if this downward trend will last.
  3. Current Situation: Piracy levels are currently low compared to historical highs, but ongoing political instability in the region keeps the threat alive and capable of escalating quickly.

Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: Escalation Linked to Houthi Activity

  1. Targeted Attacks Since November 2023: Houthi forces are still posing threats and launching attacks on merchant vessels in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Their primary targets are ships associated with Israel, the US, and the UK, all tied to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
  2. Military Response: Several naval coalitions are actively engaged in defensive operations. The US and UK have also carried out strikes on Houthi-controlled areas that are directly involved in targeting merchant shipping.

Somali Basin: The Comeback of Piracy After a Decade of Calm

Between 2008 and 2013, Somali piracy was a major concern, hitting its peak in 2011 with:

  1. Over 200 attacks
  2. 28 hijackings
  3. More than 600 seafarers taken hostage

Suppression Period: Thanks to naval interventions, enhanced security on ships, and shifts in Somalia’s social landscape, piracy saw a significant decline for nearly ten years.

Recent Revival of Attacks: However, following the Houthi escalation in late 2023, Somali piracy made a comeback. From November 2023 to November 2024:

  1. 43 attacks were reported
  2. 19 of those were successful hijackings

Interestingly, some of these incidents happened much farther from the Somali coast than usual.

Latest Developments: By 2025, a regional crackdown helped to curb activity in the eastbound lane of the Strait of Malacca and Singapore (SOMS). Since mid-2025, only 4 to 5 incidents have been recorded.

Strait of Malacca and Singapore (SOMS): Ongoing Low-Level Threats

With over 100,000 vessels passing through the SOMS each year, it remains a crucial chokepoint. The narrow channels and heavy traffic have historically drawn opportunistic attacks. While security has improved overall, sporadic cases of armed robbery still occur.

Black Sea: Restrictions from Conflict and Changing Risks

  1. Impact of the Russia–Ukraine War: The full-scale invasion by Russia in 2022 resulted in an embargo on Ukrainian ports and a no-sail zone north of 45°21’ N. Ukrainian forces have increasingly pushed back against Russia’s control of the seas.
  2. Status as of January 2025: Russia’s ability to enforce the no-sail zone is inconsistent, and control over the Black Sea is still hotly contested.
  3. Grain Export Corridors: The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which lasted from July 2022 to July 2023, temporarily allowed for Ukrainian exports. After it ended, Ukraine set up new transit corridors that remain operational as of January 2025, despite the ongoing conflict.

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Source: Safety4Sea