Adam Kent, the Managing Director of Maritime Strategies International (MSI), provides a mid-year analysis of the 2025 shipbuilding market. He highlights a significant drop-off in newbuild orders, except for the container ship sector, and discusses the influence of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) investigation into Chinese shipbuilding, its potential benefits for Japanese and Korean yards, and the outlook for the rest of the year.
Newbuilding Orders in the First Half of 2025
The first half of 2025 saw a sharp decline in newbuild orders, with a notable exception. According to Kent, container ship orders remained at a high level, making up roughly half of all new orders. In contrast, other key sectors experienced a dramatic drop: tanker contracting fell by two-thirds, while dry bulk and gas carriers saw an 80% decrease. This slowdown is attributed to geopolitical instability, which is causing some owners to hesitate, as well as a softening in shipping sectors and a slight easing of newbuild prices, prompting owners to wait and see what happens next. In a push for sustainability, about 50% of the vessels ordered were dual-fuel ships, mainly in the container ship and cruise sectors.
Impact of the U.S. Trade Representative Investigation
The USTR’s investigation into Chinese shipbuilding appears to be a contributing factor to a drop in orders at Chinese yards. New orders at Chinese yards made up only one-third of the total in the first half of 2025, compared to 70% a year earlier. However, Kent notes that this drop is also driven by the lack of new orders in sectors where China is a dominant builder, such as dry bulk carriers. The USTR’s regulations have since been scaled back to focus more on Chinese-owned and operated vessels.
The Rise of Japanese and Korean Shipyards
The USTR investigation is likely to benefit Japanese and Korean shipyards. While Chinese-built vessels have historically been cheaper, owners might now be wary of ordering from Chinese yards due to the potential impact on future resale values, even if they don’t plan to operate the ships in the U.S. This could lead more owners to turn to Korean and Japanese yards to keep their options open. Additionally, Korean and Japanese yards are well-positioned to take advantage of new shipbuilding initiatives in the U.S. and India. South Korean companies like Hanwha and HD Hyundai are already forming joint ventures in these countries, which Kent sees as the most effective way for them to develop their shipbuilding industries.
Outlook for the Rest of 2025 and 2026
MSI predicts that the second half of 2025 will mirror the first, with around 60 million gross tons of new vessels ordered in total. Container ships will continue to dominate orders, while orders for dry bulk, tankers, and gas carriers will remain low. Looking ahead to 2026, Kent forecasts a further drop in contracting, including a potential softening in container ship orders, although he cautions that with container ships, “you can never say never.”
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Source: Seatrade Maritime
