On September 20, the Minerva Amorgos LNG carrier departed Egypt’s Idku terminal with a cargo for Europe, an unusual event as Egypt has been a net importer of LNG since 2024. The shipment, chartered by TotalEnergies, is expected to be delivered to France’s Fos Cavaou LNG terminal.
Reasons for the Export
The export has led to a split in opinion among market participants, with several theories emerging about the motive behind this rare shipment.
- Technical Liquefaction: Several traders believe the export is more technical than commercial. They suggest that the Idku plant, which has a combined capacity of 7.2 million mt/year, needs to produce and export cargoes periodically to remain operational and fulfill contractual obligations. The terminal has only shipped out a handful of cargoes since early 2024.
- Payment of Arrears: A senior analyst from S&P Global Commodity Insights suggests that the export could be a way for Egypt to pay down arrears owed to international partners like Shell and Petronas, who are partners in the liquefaction plant. A similar arrangement was in place between 2016 and 2018.
- Re-exporting Due to Over-procurement: Another theory is that Egypt is re-exporting the cargo because of over-procurement. The country went on a major procurement spree in late 2024 and early 2025 to meet summer demand, securing around 50 cargoes for 2025. This has led some to believe that with the summer peak now over, Egypt is pushing excess volumes back into the market.
Outlook for Egyptian LNG
Despite the recent export, market analysts and traders generally agree that this event is an exception, not a trend. They cite several factors:
- Domestic Consumption: Egypt’s domestic consumption remains high, and declining output from fields like Zohr means that imports are expected to dominate the country’s energy balance for the foreseeable future.
- Import Strategy: Egypt has been actively securing LNG import deals, including a $3 billion agreement with Shell and TotalEnergies for 60 shipments in 2025 alone.
While sporadic exports may continue to keep the Idku plant technically operational, Egypt’s status as a net importer is expected to continue.
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Source: S&P Global
