Analyzing the deployed capacity in April 2025 along with the scheduled capacity for May 2025 reveals that a significant portion of the initially planned voyages has been cancelled. Specifically, 19% of the total planned capacity from Asia to the North America West Coast (NAWC) and 17% of the total planned capacity from Asia to the North America East Coast (NAEC) has been blanked across these two months, reports Sea Intelligence.
Trade War Impact
The recent trade war has significantly altered shipping lines’ capacity plans for the Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC) and Asia-North America East Coast (NAEC) trade lanes.
Before the trade war’s onset at the end of March, shipping lines had collectively planned to increase capacity on the Asia-NAWC trade by a substantial 17.0% year-over-year (Y/Y). However, current plans now indicate a capacity reduction of -4.3% Y/Y compared to April and May 2024.
A similar shift has occurred on the Asia-NAEC trade lane. Initial plans at the end of March projected a 10.9% Y/Y increase in trade capacity. This has now been revised to a Y/Y capacity reduction of -4.9%.
This shift explains the seemingly paradoxical situation where blanked capacity (canceled sailings) represents a significant 17%-19% of the total planned capacity on these two Transpacific routes, while the overall Y/Y capacity reduction is “only” 4%-5%. The initial plans for a substantial capacity increase have been negated by the large number of blank sailings and the deployment of smaller vessels.
Container volume data for Asian exports in April, which will provide a clearer picture of the trade war’s impact, will not be available until early June. However, indications from carriers and forwarders suggest a significant decline in Chinese bookings, ranging from -30% to -50%. This drop is considerably larger than the 4%-5% reduction in capacity. While increased uptake from other parts of Asia may partially compensate for the decline in Chinese volumes, it appears unlikely that these gains will fully offset the losses from China. This situation could lead to even more blank sailings in the coming weeks and potentially result in a significant drop in spot freight rates.
Did you subscribe to our Daily newsletter?
It’s Free! Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Sea Intelligence
