The dry bulk market, particularly the minor bulk segment, is experiencing a mixed performance in June 2025, with positive year-on-year growth driven by strong export demand. Bauxite, a key minor bulk commodity, is a significant contributor to this trend, especially in driving Capesize demand from West Africa.
Minor Dry Bulk Performance
In June 2025, minor dry bulk exports generally aligned with historical seasonal trends, despite a slightly larger month-on-month fall than in recent years. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, June exports performed well, showing a 5% increase from June 2024. The first two quarters of 2025 have seen positive growth in export tonnage, leading to increased shipping demand, as evidenced by the strong tonne-mile performance in the minor bulk market this year.
Bauxite Market Dynamics
Global bauxite exports in June 2025 were broadly in line with expectations, as monitored by The Signal Ocean Platform (TSOP). A 20% month-on-month (m/m) fall in exports reflects the typical seasonal decline that usually begins towards the end of Q2. However, strong y/y growth of 9% in June 2025 highlights sustained positive demand for bauxite. This growth has been primarily driven by exports from Guinea and Australia, which saw y/y increases of 16% and 7% respectively. Guinea, in particular, has seen soaring bauxite exports in the first half of 2025, with a 36% year-on-year increase, nearly matching its full-year total from 2022 by mid-2025.
Guinea’s Bauxite Exports and Monsoon Season Impact
The performance of exports from Guinea in Q3 2025 is a critical aspect for the maritime industry, as this aluminum raw material is a major driver of Capesize demand from the West Coast of Africa. Guinea’s bauxite exports are subject to notable seasonality due to the West African Monsoon season, which typically runs from May to October. Heavy rains during this period impact the entire supply chain, from mines to ports. In 2023 and 2024, particularly wet monsoon seasons led to export reductions outside of normal ranges (14% and 17% respectively between Q2 and Q3). However, forecasts for the 2025 monsoon season suggest middling rainfall, offering hope that the export softening will be more in line with the 12% reduction observed between 2022 Q2 and Q3.
Chinese Bauxite Demand
Continued strong Chinese bauxite demand is also supporting Guinea’s export potential through Q3. China has maintained its aluminum production levels in 2025, despite a government-implemented annual cap of 45 million tonnes. Latest available data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows that May 2025 production of Electrolyzed aluminum was 44% higher than May 2024. This surge in May 2025 production is partly due to the absence of smelter bottlenecks that impeded production in May 2024, such as issues with hydropower availability. Overall, China’s primary aluminum output for H1 2025 increased by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating robust demand for raw materials like bauxite.
Long-term Strategic Shifts in Guinea
A more long-term strategic consideration for the maritime industry is Guinea’s potential imposition of more targeted revocations of bauxite mining licenses. This is an effort to tighten control over the mineral and incentivize domestic processing, moving Guinea’s exports up the value chain by increasing domestic alumina production capacity. The most recent round of revocations has targeted underperforming mines and those not adhering to the 2022 Mining Code (Article 15), which mandates that firms must plan for or build local processing facilities by 2027.
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Source: AJOT
