- Handysize outperformed in dry bulk, with smaller losses; Baltic Dry Index hit a low of 778.
- Oil prices fell weekly despite slight gains; copper surged on trade optimism.
- Global growth steady at 3.3% (2025-26); inflation easing to 4.2% in 2025.
- Trade uncertainty impacts investment; emerging markets like India, China show resilience.
The Handysize segment led resilience, posting a smaller 9.25% drop to $7,406 daily. In contrast, Panamax and Supramax saw steeper declines of around 14%, while Capesize rates plunged 30%. According to Breakwave Advisors, this pressured the Baltic Dry Index to 778 points, signaling challenging conditions for freight carriers amid oversupply and weak demand.
Commodity Market Movements
Oil prices edged up but faced weekly declines due to U.S. policy signals on boosting domestic production and influencing OPEC. Dalian iron ore futures gained on stable Chinese demand, and copper prices reached a two-month high, driven by U.S.-China trade optimism and a weakening dollar. Grains experienced mixed results, with Argentina’s tax cuts pressuring prices despite ongoing weather concerns.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Global growth for 2025-26 is forecast at 3.3%, below the historical average. Advanced economies, like the U.S., show resilience (2.7% growth in 2025), while the euro area lags at 1.0% due to manufacturing weakness. Emerging markets, led by India (6.5%) and China (4.6%), maintain stable growth amid policy adjustments. Inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.
Trade and Investment Challenges
Global trade volume forecasts have been revised downward due to heightened policy uncertainty, impacting investment among trade-intensive firms. However, the IMF expects these effects to be transitory.
Mixed Market Sentiment
Global growth remains steady but constrained by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Commodity markets reflect shifting dynamics, while the dry bulk sector grapples with seasonal pressures and subdued demand.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
