- Project cargo supports the MPV outlook in 2026.
- General Cargo rates face sustained pressure.
- Geopolitics and regulation reshape fleet dynamics.
The outlook for multipurpose (MPV) shipping in 2026 is looking cautiously optimistic, thanks to a steady demand for project cargo. We can expect Project Carrier rates to gradually increase after a flat second half of 2025, while General Cargo rates might face some pressure due to fierce competition from container shipping, reports Drewry.
2025 Marked by Uncertainty
The year 2025 was characterised by uncertainty, with geopolitical instability, changing US trade policies, and fluctuating economic indicators shaking trade confidence and long-term planning. While transits through the Red Sea are slowly picking up again, providing some operational relief, ongoing conflicts like the war in Ukraine and broader economic uncertainties continue to cast a shadow over MPV shipping.
Economic Growth and Trade Patterns
Looking ahead, global GDP growth is projected to hover around 2.7% in 2026, which should support moderate growth in MPV demand. The increased use of the Red Sea route is likely to ramp up competition from container vessels, putting pressure on General Cargo earnings, while Project Carrier earnings are expected to remain relatively stable.
Geopolitics Supports Project Cargo
A ceasefire in the Middle East has improved shipment flows, but we probably won’t see a full restoration of the Suez route until at least the end of the first half of 2026. Ongoing tensions in Ukraine are keeping energy security at the forefront, which helps sustain demand for complex project cargoes.
Weak Growth for General Cargo Volumes
Cargo growth for General Cargo vessels is anticipated to stay sluggish at around 1.3% in 2026. Rising tariff-related costs and the overall economic uncertainty could further dampen demand. Meanwhile, the supply of container vessels is expected to surge due to a wave of new deliveries and lower utilisation as more ships return to Red Sea transits.
Deliveries and Regulations Impacting the Fleet
Right now, alternative-fuel vessels make up only 1.3% of the MPV fleet by deadweight tonnage, but they hold a more significant 12.5% of the orderbook. This percentage is set to grow by 2026 as ship owners adapt to IMO regulations and the availability of fuel. In 2025, about 2.7 million deadweight tons were delivered, which is below the anticipated 4 million, bringing the total fleet size to around 64.5 million deadweight tons.
Diverging Trends Among Vessel Types
Project Carriers have had a strong performance, with over 80% of their orderbook successfully delivered. On the other hand, General Cargo deliveries have struggled due to higher slippage rates. The number of General Cargo vessels being demolished is expected to fall short of previous estimates, which should help mitigate near-term oversupply risks. Meanwhile, demolition levels for Project Carriers are likely to align with expectations.
TC Rates Facing Challenges
The container sector is experiencing oversupply, coupled with weak tonne-mile demand, which is pushing down time charter rates for container ships and ramping up competition with General Cargo vessels. With high delivery rates and limited demolitions in the General Cargo fleet, we can expect further pressure on utilisation and TC rates, especially for mid-sized, low-lifting ships.
Project Carriers in a Stronger Position
Project Carriers seem to be in a better spot thanks to a robust project pipeline, limited growth in their orderbook, and specialized vessel specifications. Competition from Handysize vessels is likely to remain manageable, bolstered by controlled fleet growth and solid utilization rates.
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Source: Drewry
