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Geopolitical uncertainty and easing newbuilding prices slowed global ship orders in H1 2025, with many owners delaying investments.
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Container ships remained strong, accounting for about half of all orders, while dry bulk, tanker, and gas carrier sectors saw steep declines.
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Chinese yards’ share of global orders fell to one-third from 70% last year, creating opportunities for Japanese and Korean shipbuilders.
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MSI expects 2025 contracting to total around 60 million gross tons, with subdued demand in most cargo segments extending into 2026.
The shipbuilding sector’s performance in the first half of 2025 reflects contrasting trends across vessel types, with container ship orders holding strong while other segments saw significant declines. In the concluding part of a five-part market review, insights from Adam Kent, Managing Director at Maritime Strategies International (MSI), highlight these developments and the outlook for the months ahead. The discussion was featured in the Seatrade Maritime Podcast, as reported by Seatrade Maritime.
Shipbuilding Market Trends and Outlook
Shipbuilding activity in the first half of 2025 showed a clear slowdown across most sectors, with many owners delaying orders amid geopolitical uncertainty and easing newbuilding prices. According to Adam Kent, Managing Director at Maritime Strategies International (MSI), this caution reflects both softer market conditions and a wait-and-see approach from shipowners. Decarbonisation efforts remain influential, particularly in the container ship and cruise segments, with about half of new vessels ordered featuring dual-fuel capability.
Chinese shipyards experienced a marked decline in activity, accounting for roughly one-third of global orders compared to 70% in the same period last year. Kent noted that this drop partly aligns with reduced ordering in sectors where China is dominant, such as dry bulk carriers, and may also be linked to the United States Trade Representative (USTR) investigation into Chinese shipbuilding. While the original USTR proposals were later narrowed to target Chinese-owned and operated vessels, the potential impact on resale values could still deter owners from placing orders in China.
This shift presents opportunities for Japanese and Korean yards, which may benefit from both higher demand and strategic partnerships. South Korea’s Hanwha has invested in Philly Shipyard in the United States, while HD Hyundai has formed a joint venture with Cochin Shipyard in India. Kent suggested that joint ventures with established Korean and Japanese yards offer a practical route for the US and India to strengthen their shipbuilding capabilities.
Looking ahead, MSI forecasts total contracting for 2025 to reach about 60 million gross tons, with container ships continuing to dominate new orders. Demand for dry bulk, tanker, and gas carrier newbuildings is expected to remain subdued through the second half of the year, with a further slight decline projected in 2026. While container ship ordering is likely to soften, Kent cautioned that the sector’s resilience in recent years means market surprises remain possible.
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Source: SeaTrade Maritime
