- Analyzing blank sailings data alongside container demand provides insights into calculating capacity utilization on major East/West trade routes.
- It’s essential to note that this simplistic approach may not reflect the true capacity utilization, as vessels on routes like Asia to Europe may also carry cargo designated for other trades.
Capacity Projection
Illustrating the foundational capacity utilization, the blue line represents the actual utilization, while the orange line depicts our projection for the remainder of 2023.
The supply forecast is derived from carriers’ vessel deployment schedules until the year’s end. In terms of demand projection, we extrapolated June-August 2023 growth, compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, assuming a consistent trend for the rest of the year.
Blank Sailings
Recent months have witnessed subpar utilization, exacerbated by carriers’ announcements of numerous blank sailings in recent weeks. Despite these measures, there has been significant year-over-year growth in market capacity. The anticipated low utilization is expected to persist into November 2023.
The sudden spike in utilization forecasted for December 2023 raises doubts. This surge is attributed to demand patterns observed in December 2019, pre-pandemic. The substantial demand spike during that period is influencing the projected surge in December 2023, casting uncertainty on the prospects of improved utilization during that month.
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Source: Sea-Intelligence
