Dryad Global’s Maritime Intelligence Brief for the week commencing 13 October 2025 highlights escalating maritime security concerns across key global waterways, with implications for shipping operations, risk management, and strategic planning.
Red Sea: Conditional Ceasefire and Persistent Threats
The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has led to a conditional pause in Houthi attacks against non-Israeli vessels in the Red Sea. However, Israeli-flagged or linked ships remain targets. Dryad Global assesses this truce as highly unstable and strongly advises against transiting the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb under current conditions. Notably, a previous pause saw transits rise to approximately 350 per week, yet insurance costs remain 20–30% above pre-2023 levels, indicating persistent uncertainty. With Phase 2 of the ceasefire expected by November 2025, any failure to progress could lead to a resurgence of attacks similar to those in July 2025.
Operational Recommendations:
- If passage is unavoidable, intensify routing and communications discipline.
- Plan for potential diversions via the Cape of Good Hope.
- Review war-risk coverage and charterparty clauses accordingly.
South China Sea: Escalating State-On-State Tensions
On 12 October, a confrontation occurred near Thitu Island when China Coast Guard vessel CCG 21559 used water cannons and made physical contact with the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessel BRP Datu Pagbuaya, causing minor damage and forcing a course change. The United States labeled the action as “dangerous and escalatory,” while China claimed the Philippine vessel entered its jurisdiction. This incident underscores the risk of state-on-state friction affecting commercial navigation in contested waters.
Operational Recommendations:
- Maintain prudent Closest Point of Approach (CPA) from state assets.
- Document all interactions on the bridge log.
- Align voyage planning and advisories with company Health, Safety, Security, and Environment (HSSE) guidance for Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and territorial claims.
Cybersecurity: Heightened Threats to Maritime Infrastructure
The Maritime Intelligence Brief flags several cybersecurity concerns relevant to shipowners, managers, ports, and energy terminals:
- Compromise trends in network appliances and backups, including active exploitation of VMware and Oracle zero-day vulnerabilities, attributed to SideWinder and China-linked actors.
- Continued reports of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Automatic Identification System (AIS) interference.
- Operational risks from deepfakes and social engineering in maritime workflows.
- Cyberattacks impacting European oil port terminals and persistent pre-positioning on U.S. and Pacific infrastructure.
Operational Recommendations:
- Validate offline, immutable backups.
- Accelerate patching cycles for edge devices.
- Segregate Operational Technology (OT) and Information Technology (IT) networks.
- Rehearse GPS-denied navigation fallbacks.
- Tune Security Operations Center (SOC) detections for living-off-the-land and identity-abuse patterns highlighted this quarter.
Global Developments Impacting Maritime Operations
Additional factors influencing maritime risk include:
- Migration pressures in the Mediterranean.
- Stepped-up counter-narcotics activity in the Americas.
- Arctic defense investments.
- Evolving Asia–Pacific naval postures.
These developments intersect with shipping risk and insurance exposure, necessitating comprehensive risk assessments and adaptive strategies.
Strategic Implications for Maritime Operators
The current maritime security landscape is characterized by multi-domain and dynamic risks. Fragile truces, grey-zone maritime enforcement, and cyber pre-positioning can quickly combine to raise exposure on a single voyage. Dryad Global recommends continuous voyage-specific threat monitoring, updated company guidance for Red Sea and South China Sea transits, and a renewed focus on cyber resilience across fleets and terminals.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free — Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Dryad Global
