- Flu cases surge across Asia, raising alarm over an unusually early and intense outbreak.
- Experts confirm it’s not a COVID resurgence, but evolving flu strains and shifting weather patterns may be driving infections.
- Health authorities urge vaccination, warning of changing virus behavior and growing pandemic potential.
After years of relative calm following the COVID-19 pandemic, parts of Asia are now facing a mysterious and early “flu” outbreak that’s reigniting public concern, reports IBTimes.
Across Japan, Singapore, Thailand, and India, hospitals are reporting a sharp increase in influenza cases — weeks ahead of the typical flu season. While many initially feared a return of COVID-19, health experts are clarifying that the current rise is largely flu-driven, though the changing behavior of influenza viruses warrants attention.
Japan Declares a National Flu Epidemic
Japan was the first to sound the alarm. On October 3, the Ministry of Health declared a national flu epidemic after cases surged nearly five weeks earlier than usual — the second-earliest outbreak in 20 years.
Between September 22 and 28, Japan recorded over 4,000 flu patients, crossing the epidemic threshold. Just a week later, cases climbed past 6,000, more than double last year’s figure for the same period.
The impact was immediate: 135 schools and childcare centers shut down across 28 prefectures, with Okinawa reporting the highest numbers per clinic.
The Flu Wave Extends Across Asia
The outbreak isn’t confined to Japan. Singapore, Thailand, and India have also reported steep increases in flu activity — particularly from the H3N2 strain, a descendant of the 1968 Hong Kong flu virus.
Dr. Martin Beer of Germany’s Friedrich Loeffler Institut explained that influenza A and B are responsible for most seasonal outbreaks, and the recent uptick may indicate viruses are adapting to circulate earlier or more quickly than before.
Yoko Tsukamoto of Hokkaido University warned that early flu seasons could become “a more common scenario” as global environmental patterns shift.
Climate and Behavior: The Tropical Flu Puzzle
Singapore’s Ministry of Health reported a sharp climb in respiratory infections, with influenza and rhinoviruses both rising. Doctors observed up to a 40% surge in flu cases amid the city’s inter-monsoon thunderstorms.
Experts link this pattern to behavior during heavy rainfall — when people crowd indoors, facilitating viral spread. Thailand, too, saw over 30,000 new cases in early September, adding to a total of 555,000 infections and 59 deaths this year.
While climate change has been tied to the spread of mosquito- and water-borne diseases, scientists note that its direct effect on influenza remains unclear. Still, changing weather and crowding patterns appear to be influencing how and when flu spreads in tropical regions.
Evolving Strains Challenge Immunity
According to Dr. Paul Tambyah of the Asia Pacific Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infection, new influenza strains are likely behind the rising case numbers. The WHO’s 2026 flu vaccine update already includes two new variants, suggesting that existing immunity may offer limited protection.
Tambyah noted that while virus evolution is ongoing, there’s “no evidence” of accelerated mutation — but he warned that novel strains like H5, H7, or H9 could one day trigger another pandemic, as seen with the 1957 “Asian Flu.”
Experts also highlighted that the spread of bird flu to mammals — including recent cases in U.S. cattle — could raise the risk of cross-species transmission, leading to new human-adapted flu variants.
Vaccination Remains the Strongest Defence
Despite the heightened concern, experts stress that this outbreak is not COVID-19’s return. Instead, it’s a reminder that flu viruses are constantly evolving — and vaccination remains the best protection.
Tambyah clarified that there’s no post-COVID immunity deficit, noting that respiratory illness deaths have stayed stable. In fact, pandemic-era hygiene practices like masking and handwashing continue to reduce spread.
However, global vaccine hesitancy remains a challenge, even in developed nations like Japan and Singapore. Experts emphasize that high-risk groups — especially the elderly — should stay updated with annual flu shots.
Dr. Ramanan Laxminarayan of One Health Trust added that the long-term goal is a universal flu vaccine effective against all strains for up to a decade, but such a breakthrough is still in development.
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Source: IBTimes
