- Persistent disruptions, including Red Sea rerouting, port congestion, and trade tensions, are severely impacting global shipping operations.
- Vessel schedule reliability has fallen to 58.7%, with ships running slower to conserve fuel and comply with emissions rules.
- Industry leaders caution that the situation remains volatile, with no short-term recovery expected in 2025.
At the 2025 Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC) Conference in Tacoma, Washington, logistics leaders painted a bleak picture of the state of maritime trade. Ongoing disruptions—ranging from political tensions and suspended shipping routes to worsening port conditions—have created an environment of extreme unpredictability. According to Bill Rooney, Executive VP at Kuehne + Nagel, global logistics has entered a period of persistent instability, with uncertainty now surpassing levels seen during the pandemic and even the 1971 Nixon shock, according to Supply Chain Brain.
Geopolitical Conflicts Extend Red Sea Disruptions
Red Sea transit routes, once vital to global trade, remain largely inaccessible as renewed conflict between Iran and Israel and escalating attacks by Houthi rebels show no signs of resolution. The resulting detours around the Cape of Good Hope have added weeks to shipping schedules, increased operating costs, and tied up critical vessel capacity that previously moved swiftly through the Suez Canal.
Major Global Ports Buckle Under Pressure
Port congestion is reaching unsustainable levels, particularly in Europe and Asia. Antwerp and Bremerhaven have seen berth wait times rise sharply, and many terminals now operate at 90–95% capacity. Fabio Santucci, CEO of Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), emphasized how this congestion has created severe bottlenecks, disrupted inland transportation, and caused vessel bunching—damaging efficiency across the logistics chain.
Weather Extremes and Labor Disruptions Compound Challenges
Europe’s shipping operations are facing a cascade of setbacks, including historically low water levels on the Rhine River, widespread labor strikes, and alliance reshuffles that have scattered vessel schedules. Additionally, a heatwave-induced system failure on July 1 temporarily shut down Rotterdam terminals. In Asia, the temporary suspension of tariffs on Chinese exports triggered a surge in U.S.-bound freight bookings, overwhelming ports like Shanghai, Singapore, and Yokohama with delays ranging from one to three days.
Shipping Reliability and Speed Decline Sharply
Maritime reliability continues to suffer, with only 58.7% of global vessels arriving on time. This is a steep drop from pre-pandemic levels and is being worsened by deliberate speed reductions aimed at fuel savings and emissions compliance. Average vessel speeds have declined to 14 knots—far slower than the 25–27 knots common in the 1970s.
An Industry Under Continuous Stress
The shipping sector is facing the cumulative effects of years of disruption, with no quick fixes on the horizon. From shifting trade policies and geopolitical conflict to weather disruptions and aging infrastructure, the maritime supply chain is being forced to adapt rapidly. Industry leaders like Santucci stress that the entire global logistics ecosystem remains in a state of flux, demanding resilience, strategic planning, and significant investment to maintain flow and stability.
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Source: Supply Chain Brain
