Ocean Freight Market Update: Capacity Surges and Split Rate Movements Across Major Trades

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Mfame Editor
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9

Xeneta reports in its Weekly Ocean Container-Shipping Market Update (20 Nov 2025) that the ocean freight market is seeing diverging trends across major trade lanes.

Market Snapshot & Capacity Trends

  • Spot rates (as of 20 Nov) show:

    • Far East → US West Coast: US$ 2,190 / FEU

    • Far East → US East Coast: US$ 2,838 / FEU

    • Far East → North Europe: US$ 2,367 / FEU

    • Far East → Mediterranean: US$ 2,943 / FEU

    • North Europe → US East Coast: US$ 1,570 / FEU

  • Offered capacity (4-week rolling average, week of 17 Nov):

    • Far East → US West Coast: +5.4% week-on-week

    • Far East → US East Coast: +11.4%

    • Far East → North Europe: +4.8%

    • Far East → Mediterranean: +8.7%

    • North Europe → US East Coast: +10.7%

  • Notably, carriers are increasing capacity across all five major trade lanes for the second week in a row.

  • The biggest capacity jump is on Far East → US East Coast, driven by double sailings: Ocean Alliance’s Ever Focus (from Busan) and Texas Triumph (from Ningbo-Zhoushan) are both calling Savannah, Georgia just before Christmas after transiting the Panama Canal.

  • On the North Europe → US East Coast trade, offered capacity has surged to a 28-month high, nearing 60,000 TEU (4-week average). That represents a 55.5% increase compared to just a month ago, with a strong contribution from non-alliance carriers (up 157.1%) and the Gemini Alliance (up 42.3%). xeneta.com

Rate Movements & Demand Dynamics

  • Far East → US East Coast: Capacity appears to be outpacing demand — as spot rates have dropped 2.8% week-on-week and are 23% below the 1 Nov peak.

  • Far East → US West Coast: Rates dropped 3.2% this week — continuing a downward trend for the second week in a row.

  • Far East → Europe (North Europe & Mediterranean): Contrary to the U.S.-bound trades, average spot rates are rising — up 5.6% into North Europe and 4.1% into the Mediterranean.

  • Because capacity is also increasing on these European trades, Xeneta interprets the trend as a sign of strong demand into Europe.

Analyst Insight (Peter Sand, Xeneta)

  • Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, notes “striking differences” between shipping dynamics into Europe versus the U.S.

  • He argues that healthy demand in Europe is helping support rising rates, even as capacity increases.

  • In contrast, for U.S.-bound trades, he suggests that excess capacity may be outstripping demand, causing the recent rate declines.

  • Looking ahead to 2026, Sand expects these divergent patterns to continue:

    • Demand into Europe could be fueled by more Chinese exports shifting away from North America.

    • Meanwhile, U.S.-bound volumes may face headwinds from trade policy, which could dampen ocean container demand and impact consumer imports.

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Source: Xeneta