- Ocean freight rates from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean increased to US$5,300/FEU, nearing pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) levels.
- Asia-Europe demand is rising ahead of the LNY holiday slowdown, while transpacific rates eased due to a lack of similar urgency.
- Q4 US ocean imports were 11% higher than earlier projections, influenced by frontloading before a possible January port strike and tariff hikes.
Ocean freight rates from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean are surging due to pre-Lunar New Year demand, while transpacific rates have softened in the absence of immediate pressure. Meanwhile, air cargo rates ex-China remain elevated, driven by e-commerce volumes, although upcoming regulatory changes could curb growth in 2025, reports Container News.
Ocean Freight Rates: Asia-Europe vs. Transpacific
Ocean rates on Asia-Europe and Mediterranean lanes rose last week to US$5,300/FEU as shippers rushed to move inventory ahead of the LNY holiday slowdown. Carriers are expected to implement mid-month general rate increases (GRIs) to further push rates upward.
In contrast, transpacific lanes saw a dip in rates, as pre-LNY demand has not yet surged. With the January 15 potential ILA port strike closing the window for early shipments, mid-December GRIs may face challenges, although rates could rise closer to the holiday period.
Q4 Import Trends and Future Projections
US ocean imports for Q4 2024 were 11% higher than early estimates, attributed to frontloading ahead of the January strike and anticipated 2025 tariff hikes following the Trump administration’s victory.
Q4 volumes reached 640,000 TEUs above earlier projections, with a 7% year-on-year increase expected through April 2025.
Capacity and Competition Dynamics
Ex-Asia freight rates are likely to rise with seasonal demand, although capacity increases could moderate these hikes.
Carrier alliance reshuffles scheduled for February 2025 may further intensify competition, potentially putting downward pressure on rates through March.
Air Cargo: E-Commerce Drives Elevated Rates
Air cargo rates ex-China remained stable during one of the busiest weeks of the year, supported by capacity additions and advanced bookings.
B2C e-commerce demand, especially from platforms like Temu and Shein, has driven elevated rates and tight space availability throughout 2024. However, regulatory challenges to the de minimis exemption could limit cross-border air cargo growth in 2025.
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Source: Container News
