OceanScore: EU ETS Could Set Back Greek Shippers By €1bn

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  • Maritime data analytics firm OceanScore estimates that 2,135 Greek owned and operated vessels from around 400 companies will need to surrender allowances for 2024 voyages by the deadline in September 2025.
  • Using 2022 voyage data, OceanScore expects that Greek owners will be required to surrender 11.96m EUAs for voyages to and from the EU/EEA.
  • The current EUA price of around €70 and 40% liability level gives costs of €335m for Greek shipping.

Validation of voyage emissions data and contractual arrangements for allocation of EU ETS costs remain key challenges for Greek shipowners as they face an estimated total €335m bill this year, potentially rising to €1bn once the regulation is fully implemented, according to OceanScore, reports Safety4sea.

Greek shipowners could face €1bn EU ETS costs

Some 2135 vessels owned or operated by around 400 Greek shipping companies are presently racking up liabilities under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) that will require them to surrender EU Allowances (EUAs) next year for GHG emissions incurred during 2024. OceanScore has calculated that Greek owners will be required to surrender 11.96m EUAs, based on 2022 voyage data for Greek-owned ships sailing both within and to/from the EU/EEA.

High average cost per vessel Given a current EUA price of around €70, this would result in total EUA costs of €335m for Greek shipping this year with 40% liability under the three-year phase-in of the EU ETS, increasing to €586m in 2025 with 70% exposure and €837m with full implementation in 2026 – though a moderate hop in the volatile EUA price could easily take this figure north of €1bn, OceanScore notes.

As OceanScore explains, this would equate to an average emissions cost of nearly €400,000 per vessel once the EU ETS is fully implemented, though ships with green technology to curb emissions would clearly have much lower EUA exposure.

Nonetheless, this will amount to significant additional liabilities related to emissions for many Greek shipping players that are active across most segments, predominantly the tanker and bulk trades, and will necessitate measures to mitigate their financial risk and limit exposure to the EU ETS,” said OceanScore’s co-Managing Director Ralf Garrn.

Typical emissions liabilities More than 500 of the overall tally of Greek-owned vessels impacted by the EU ETS are in the hands of the 10 largest players, including Eastern Mediterranean, Minerva Marine, TMS Group and Thenamaris Ships Management.

An analysis carried out by OceanScore of the impact of the EU ETS on one typical Greek shipowner with 50 vessels shows that it would incur emissions liabilities of €18.5m from the requirement to purchase around 265,000 EUAs at full implementation based on the current EUA price.

OceanScore is seeing variable states of EU ETS readiness at Greek shipping companies, with a prevalent “wait-and-see” attitude, in common with much of the industry as it is still getting to grips with the complexities of the regulation, the impact on charter parties and the requirements for compliance, according to Garrn.

This makes it important for shipping companies to have accurate real-time emissions data communicated from ship to shore for verification to support correct allocation of EUA costs among voyage stakeholders, also taking into account off-hires, Garrn noted.

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Source: Seatrade Maritime News