Ocean Network Express (ONE) has once again reduced its full-year profit forecast, signaling growing concerns over market instability and the challenges facing the global shipping industry. The company warned that despite temporary rate recoveries, ongoing uncertainties from oversupply to trade tensions could further weaken financial performance in the coming months.
ONE’s Revised Forecast and Market Challenges
In its latest interim report, ONE lowered its profit outlook for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to $310 million, down from $700 million projected in August and $1.1 billion estimated in April. The downgrade reflects the impact of new ship deliveries flooding the market and the persistence of Red Sea diversions, which have temporarily absorbed capacity.
Analysts from Linerlytica warn that once rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope ends, over 130 vessels nearly 6% of the global container fleet could return to service, putting additional pressure on freight and charter rates.
Trade Policies and Freight Rate Volatility
ONE also highlighted the influence of US-China trade policies, including the recent agreement between Beijing and Washington to halve certain tariffs and suspend reciprocal port fees for one year. While these measures could support trade flow, they may simultaneously reduce carriers’ pricing leverage as logistics pressures ease.
Although freight rates have recently rebounded due to short-term factors such as blank sailings, port congestion, and general rate hikes, experts like Fearnley Securities caution that this recovery may not last. They predict that 2026 could bring losses for many shipping lines as oversupply and easing disruptions weigh on rates.
Ocean Network Express’s revised outlook underscores the fragile balance in global shipping. Despite temporary boosts in freight rates and trade improvements, the combination of excess vessel capacity, uncertain trade relations, and shifting market conditions points to a challenging road ahead for the liner industry. The coming year will test how well carriers adapt to a more volatile and competitive global environment.
