Weekly Outlook: Mixed Sentiment Across Markets

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  • VLCC market saw diverging patterns with sluggish activity in the Arabian Gulf (AG) sector and higher levels in the US Gulf (USG).
  • Suezmax market maintained steady rates due to cargo flow into Europe, while Aframax remained quiet with rates near year-to-date lows.
  • MR market in both the CONT and Americas regions saw a decline due to ship oversupply, despite some gains from delayed cargoes.

Weekly 39 saw diverging trends in the tanker market, with VLCC rates in the Arabian Gulf dropping, while USG rates resisted. Suezmax vessels remained stable with cargo flows into Europe, but Aframax struggled at near year-to-date lows due to limited activity. In the MR market, oversupply of ships caused rates to decline across both the CONT and Americas, despite some gains from delayed cargoes caused by Tropical Storm Helene, reports CRW.

VLCC: Diverging Market Patterns

The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) sector experienced varying trends. The Arabian Gulf (AG) market continued its sluggish pace, with TD3 closing the week nearly 7 WS points lower, posting a final assessment of WS53.55.

The weakness in the AG spilled over to West Africa and Brazil, but the Atlantic region, particularly the US Gulf (USG), showed some resistance.

Rates for Eastbound voyages from the USG ended the week at $8.0 million, but this quickly failed and is expected to re-test closer to the $7.0 million level (for 270k MT cargoes).

Suezmax: Balanced Rates Amid Increased Activity

Despite a lack of activity in the Aframax market, Suezmax vessels saw more action this week.

A steady flow of cargoes to Europe kept rates balanced at WS65 for Gulf loadings (145k MT) and WS70-75 for cargoes from the Caribs and Guyana (basis varies). If the tonnage list starts thinning, rates could increase as next week progresses.

Aframax: Quiet Market with Rates Near Lows

It was another quiet week for Aframax vessels, with cargoes continuing to trade near year-to-date lows for the third week in a row. Tonnage in the Gulf continues to stack up, requiring a significant increase in activity to revive the market.

Europe-bound routes remained flat at WS100, while East Coast Mexico cargoes projected WS85 for USG discharge (both 70k MT). The market is expected to start next week at similarly low levels.

MR: Declining Rates in CONT and Americas Markets

The MR market in both the CONT (Continental Europe) and the Americas started the week strong but saw day-by-day declines.

TC2 dropped 25 WS points, largely attributed to an oversupply of ships. TC14 and TC18 fell by 15 WS points, while TC21 shaved off just over $100k throughout the week (all basis 38k MT).

Despite sufficient cargo being available, hidden ships and vessels with Russian history led to slight gains. Tropical Storm Helene caused delays that could carry over into the following week.

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Source: CRW