This week’s analysis of global grain flows highlights significant shifts driven by ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions.
Shifting Grain Trade Dynamics
China’s move to reduce its reliance on U.S. agricultural imports has become a defining trend. In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China saw a dramatic collapse to just 783,000 tonnes, representing an 85% decline from the previous quarter. This has led to Brazil and Argentina solidifying their roles as China’s primary soybean suppliers, with a projected 10 million metric tons to be imported from these two countries in the 2025/26 marketing year.
New Opportunities for the U.S.
While the U.S. soybean sector faces challenges in the Chinese market, a new partnership is emerging with Japan. Following a trade agreement in July 2025, Japan has committed to purchasing approximately $8 billion in U.S. agricultural goods, including corn and soybeans. Japanese policymakers are now considering expanding the use of U.S. corn for applications beyond animal feed, such as for renewable energy.
Freight Market Conditions
The report also details the recent trends in the dry bulk shipping market.
- Panamax Vessels: Panamax spot rates for routes from East Coast South America (ECSA) and the U.S. Gulf (USG) to the Far East have declined at the start of September. However, the monthly trend for these routes remains positive, with increases of 7% and 4% respectively. This is supported by a decrease in ballast vessels heading to ECSA and consistent daily loading volumes.
- Supramax Vessels: Supramax spot rates have shown strength on several key routes. The ECSA to Far East route saw a significant weekly increase of 13% to reach $36/tonne, while the USG to Far East route gained 3% to reach $44/tonne. This continued positive momentum since July is linked to a consistent decline in the supply of Supramax vessels to the USG/USEC region.
Did you subscribe to our Daily newsletter?
It’s Free! Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Breakwave Advisors
