In its latest Tanker Market Report, Gibson Shipbrokers highlights mounting pressure on Russian crude exports as Western countries intensify sanctions and impose fresh tariffs.
Tanker market disruptions
Western powers, led by the EU and G7, have intensified pressure on Russia’s energy sector in an attempt to cut off vital revenue streams. The latest sanctions package goes beyond targeting vessels linked to shadow operations, extending to a ban on refined products derived from Russian crude. This expansion of restrictions marks a significant step in tightening control over both crude and downstream oil markets.
The tanker industry has already felt the weight of these changes. Routes are being redrawn, costs are fluctuating, and compliance with evolving rules has become a complex challenge. Shipowners and brokers must constantly adapt, balancing the need for efficiency with the risks of violating sanctions. At the same time, insurers are facing pressure to withdraw coverage from vessels engaged in sanction-sensitive trades, adding further uncertainty to maritime operations.
Despite these measures, Russia continues to rely heavily on its so-called “dark fleet” to move crude across global markets. These vessels, operating largely outside international oversight, provide Moscow with a vital lifeline to sustain oil exports. While some trade has shifted back toward fleets aligned with Western compliance frameworks, shadow fleet activity remains deeply embedded in the market, highlighting persistent enforcement gaps.
These developments have also reshaped market dynamics in subtle but important ways. Supply chains are becoming increasingly fragmented as sanctioned cargoes take longer and riskier routes. Insurance cover has grown more difficult to secure, raising costs for legitimate operators and pushing others further into opaque arrangements. The tanker market itself is becoming segmented, with compliant fleets constrained in where they can operate, while non-compliant vessels continue to exploit loopholes to capture demand.
Shifting market dynamics
Looking ahead, the effectiveness of sanctions will depend not only on legislation but on the robustness of enforcement. Long grace periods and exemptions at certain refineries have created weaknesses that blunt the impact of current measures. Closing these gaps and imposing stricter penalties on violations will be essential if Western governments hope to significantly restrict Russia’s crude export flows.
Russia’s crude trade now sits at the center of a tug-of-war between geopolitics and global shipping. While sanctions and tariffs have undeniably reshaped the flow of oil, their full impact will only materialize if enforcement measures keep pace. For tanker operators and traders, the months ahead are likely to remain marked by uncertainty, shifting routes, and mounting regulatory risks.
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Source: Gibson
