project44 today released its October Tariff report, which provides the latest information on the impact of tariffs on imports and the flow of the global supply chain. This month’s report contains data on blank sailings by lane, blank sailings between the US and China, the Ocean Volume Index and the proportion of US exports by country.
Here are the key findings from the October report:
- Blank sailings between the U.S. and China are predicted to surge in October, with 67 blank sailings planned for vessels going from China to the U.S. and 71 planned for vessels going from the U.S. to China, exceeding Covid-19 levels. Blank sailings, when an ocean carrier cancels or skips a scheduled port call, are a key indicator of reduced demand for ocean capacity as the cost to import goods into the U.S. rises.
- YTD blank sailings surge on key regional lanes, highlighting disruptions of U.S. imports and exports:
- US West Coast→Southeast Asia (+75%)
- China→US West Coast (+46.5%)
- Southeast Asia→US West Coast (+40.7%)
- US West Coast→Europe (+31.6%)
- Southeast Asia→US East Coast (+28.7%)
- US West Coast→China (+26.5%)
- Imports from China remain down for the fifth consecutive month, while exports remain down for the ninth consecutive month. Early data suggests some volumes shifting from China to Indonesia and Thailand as a source of U.S. imports.
- Early numbers show ecommerce on-time performance has not been impacted by the end of the de-minimis exemption. On-time performance improved by 1% between August and September.
“Carriers are cancelling sailings at an intensity we haven’t seen since the early pandemic period. The strategy is less about crisis response this time and more about maintaining rate stability in a tariff-distorted market,” said Bart De Muynck, Head Thinker at Better Supply Chains.
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Source: PR Newswire
