- The Q3 2025 Shipping Market Outlook reflects the impact of geopolitical flashpoints, energy sanctions, and economic uncertainty—especially surrounding China—on all major shipping sectors.
- Tankers face volatile trade patterns and long-haul rerouting, while Bulkers benefit from constrained fleet growth amid fragile demand.
- Container and Gas markets are dealing with overcapacity challenges and high newbuilding activity, though macroeconomic shifts and new trade routes offer longer-term opportunities.
The current geopolitical and economic landscape is exerting growing influence over global shipping markets. Tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly around the critical Strait of Hormuz, continue to threaten regional security and energy flows. In the Red Sea, persistent Houthi disruptions are impacting Suez Canal traffic. Sanctions on oil, evolving U.S. import tariffs, and concerns over China’s economic performance, especially in real estate and exports, add further complexity to global trade. These variables are shaping short- and long-term developments across tankers, bulkers, containers, and gas markets, according to VesselsValue Blog.
Tankers
Tanker markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions, sanctions, and shifting trade routes. Red Sea insecurity and EU bans on Russian oil are contributing to rerouted long-haul crude trades, particularly from the Atlantic Basin to Asia, supporting elevated ton-mile demand. However, new vessel deliveries and improving energy efficiency challenge utilisation levels. Fleet growth is projected to exceed demand post-2025 due to low scrapping and an expanding orderbook, though environmental regulations under the EU ETS and IMO’s carbon targets may temper these effects. Structural shifts—such as electrification and improved fuel economy—signal weaker long-term oil demand. China’s role remains pivotal, but Asian economic fragility and inflationary pressures are influencing broader oil trade patterns.
Bulkers
A reduced bulker orderbook has helped stabilise fleet supply, but demand outlook remains mixed amid rising tariffs and trade disruptions. China’s internal economic struggles, particularly in the property sector and its export-dependence, are expected to soften dry bulk imports in 2025. However, prospects for long-term ton-mile growth remain intact, particularly with new iron ore routes, such as Guinea’s Simandou mine exports to China expected from 2026. Red Sea rerouting, driven by geopolitical instability, continues to add ton-miles—contributing roughly 1% to overall bulker demand and offering modest support to freight rates.
Containers
Container markets face a looming supply-demand imbalance. While freight rates were firm through early 2025, they are projected to decline steadily as vessel supply growth surpasses demand. The sector saw net fleet growth of 5.5% in 2023 and 9.7% in 2024, with an expected annual average of 8.2% through 2028. Record newbuild orders in 2024 pushed the orderbook-to-fleet ratio to over 31%, with a shift toward ULCVs due to route changes. Scrapping remains limited but is likely to rise, especially for smaller vessels under 3,000 TEUs. High newbuilding prices and elevated orderbook levels are expected to curb new orders in the near term and gradually reduce pressure on shipyards.
Gas
The gas sector remains dynamic, with U.S. LPG production rising by 5.9% in 2024 and projected to grow another 4.2% in 2025. Export growth is temporarily limited by terminal capacity, but expansions from 2026 onward should revive outbound volumes. VLGC and VLAC fleet growth is strong—10.9% in 2024—with 7.3% average annual growth expected through 2028. This is expected to dampen earnings despite sustained demand. Medium-sized LPG vessels are seeing rapid growth, while smaller gas carriers face higher scrapping due to fleet aging. VLGC earnings are forecast to dip in 2025, rebound in 2026 with new terminal capacity, and fall again through 2027–28 as supply outpaces demand. Petrochemical gas trades remain under pressure from overcapacity and weak demand, although regional intra-Asia activity and economic recovery could support moderate volume increases.
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Source: VesselsValue Blog
