Since 2020, the dry bulk market has been heavily influenced by global events, with COVID-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Middle East conflicts significantly reshaping the industry. According to Breakwave Advisors, traditional market fundamentals have given way to external factors, dramatically altering supply, demand, and trade patterns.
COVID-19 and Demand Surge
COVID-19 initially disrupted the global supply chain, leading to logistical complications and a shift in consumption. The dry bulk market experienced sharp rate increases as demand outpaced supply from mid-2020 to 2022.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 disrupted trade flows, resulting in sanctions and heightened war risks. This, coupled with altered trade patterns, boosted tonne-mile demand for bulk carriers despite the market beginning to cool in mid-2022 as pandemic effects eased.
Middle East Conflict and Global Trade
The 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and the resulting shipping disruptions in the Red Sea further impacted the dry bulk market. Strikes on commercial ships, combined with rerouted voyages, created a notable increase in tonne-mile demand, further complicating trade and logistics.
These key events, alongside weather disruptions like the Panama Canal’s water shortages, have heavily influenced the bulk carrier market, with future uncertainties still looming.
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Source: Breakwave advisors
