- The Indian shipping industry has experienced a medium impact from ongoing geopolitical tensions around the Red Sea, as per CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics analysis.
- The crisis has caused a significant spike in shipping freight rates, with global container shipping rates now 2.5-3 times higher than they were in early December 2023.
- Spot rates for vessels passing through the Suez Canal, particularly on routes from Asia to Europe, have increased almost fivefold.
- Shipping rates from China to the US have more than doubled in response to the crisis.
- The surge in global spot rates is due to a scarcity of vessels available at ports, caused by unscheduled rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in delays of up to two weeks.
Geopolitical Tensions Impact On Indian Shipping
According to a recent analysis from CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics, the ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the Red Sea have moderately impacted the Indian shipping industry. This crisis has resulted in a substantial escalation in shipping freight rates, with global container shipping rates now ranging from 2.5 to 3 times higher than their levels in early December 2023. Particularly noteworthy is the nearly five-fold increase in spot rates for vessels transiting through the Suez Canal, particularly on Asia-to-Europe routes. Similarly, rates for shipping from China to the US have more than doubled during this period.
The surge in global spot rates can be attributed to a scarcity of vessels available at ports, caused by unscheduled rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour is resulting in delays of up to two weeks. Despite approximately 80 percent of shipping contracts being long-term, the potential for renewal could be compromised if Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions persist. Nevertheless, the detour’s additional costs are somewhat mitigated by the avoidance of Suez Canal tolls, alongside the substantial hike in freight rates, rendering the situation from positive to neutral for the shipping industry. Operators are finding that the elevated freight rates more than offset the incremental operating costs and additional risks.
Domestic Focus And Limited Export Surge Expected
Conversely, the textiles sector in India is poised to remain largely unaffected by the crisis in the Red Sea. With around three-quarters of the industry focused on the domestic market and the significant festive season already concluded, the current quarter is not expected to witness a surge in export demand. This outlook suggests that the textiles industry is unlikely to face immediate challenges, largely due to a weak trade cycle. Moreover, overseas buyers might be able to absorb the increased freight costs, thereby protecting the profitability of exporters. However, a prolonged crisis could potentially harm margins and extend the working capital cycle for businesses within the sector, as per CRISIL.
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Source: fibre2fashion
