After months of disruption, signals are emerging that commercial shipping may be inching toward a return to the Red Sea. Houthi forces claim to have halted their attacks, and container lines are cautiously preparing for a possible comeback. Yet, even if vessels resume transiting the Bab el Mandeb, the global container market faces deeper challenges that no routing change can resolve.
Signs of Stability But a Delicate Reality
Red Sea transits have been rising ever since Major General Yusuf al-Madani stated that attacks would halt unless Israeli operations in Gaza resumed. October even saw the highest number of Bab el Mandeb crossings in 18 months.
Major carriers are beginning to signal readiness:
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Maersk says it is “keen” on a full return.
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ZIM has publicly stated it hopes to resume operations “as soon as we can.”
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CMA CGM has already sent one of its largest ships, CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin, through the Red Sea, backed by French naval escorts.
However, true normalization will only occur when all major lines confidently re-adopt the route something the industry expects might not fully materialize until 2026, according to early responses to Lloyd’s List’s Outlook Forum survey.
A Market Under Strain Regardless of Red Sea Recovery
Despite the operational relief a reopened Red Sea would bring, returning shipping to the chokepoint might not dramatically alter the market’s trajectory.
Container lines have benefited from Cape of Good Hope diversions, which absorbed excess capacity. Yet carriers acknowledge that prolonging detours isn’t a solution to structural oversupply.
The numbers tell the story:
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An unprecedented 2 million TEU of new capacity is expected to enter the market annually through 2027.
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Demand, once buoyed by geopolitical tensions, has since weakened.
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Even without a Red Sea return, global freight rates are projected to fall up to 25% in 2026.
Some argue it’s better to restart Red Sea transits now, while demand is soft, to avoid overwhelming European ports later. Others believe delaying the inevitable might offer temporary relief though this mirrors an “avoid the pain” strategy many see as futile.
The container market has weathered surprises before, with unforeseen events often propping up rates. But this time, the sheer scale of incoming capacity is expected to outweigh any short-term disruptions or detours. Whether carriers return to the Red Sea tomorrow or in 2026, the underlying supply-demand imbalance will shape the industry’s fate. Without another black swan event, the market correction appears unavoidable and fast approaching.
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Source: Lloyd’s List
