- Carriers Test Limited Red Sea Returns With Controlled Services.
- Insurers and Alliances Seek Sustained Calm Before Wider Reopening.
- Threat Levels Remain Elevated in the Southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Lately, there has been a rise in piracy, armed robbery, and attacks in the Red Sea, making headlines again. Yet, on a brighter note, Bab el Mandeb transits are bouncing back to levels we haven’t seen in nearly two years, hinting at a cautious recovery in Red Sea traffic, reports Safety4Sea.
Data Signals Cautious Improvement
Recent figures from Skuld Club reveal that Bab el Mandeb transits have surged to their highest point in almost two years, indicating a slow but steady recovery in the Red Sea corridor. While this improvement is encouraging, it’s still modest: volumes are trailing behind the pre-November 2023 levels, and operators are carefully weighing their exposure to security, insurance, and scheduling risks.
Limited Service Resumptions
Ocean Network Express (ONE) has rolled out a bi-weekly “Red Sea China Service” (RCS) – a slot charter on RCL’s route connecting Shanghai, Qingdao, Nansha, and Shekou with Jeddah, Sokhna, and Aqaba, all without passing through the Suez Canal. The first sailing (SSF DREAM) is set for January 15, 2026. Other carriers are joining in as slot partners, highlighting the industry’s preference for a controlled re-entry rather than a full-scale reset.
Parallel Signals From Major Carriers
Additionally, Skuld points out that similar trends are emerging among major carriers: CMA CGM has started selecting Suez transits (like INDAMEX), while alliances are keeping a close watch, and insurers are reportedly looking for “60–90 days of calm” before giving the green light for broader returns. In essence, the industry is testing the waters; the risk assessment is still the key factor in determining final routing.
The threat landscape remains steady
The Southern Red Sea and the Western Gulf of Aden continue to be the main areas of concern for kinetic risks. Recent advisories and incident reports still highlight issues like missile threats, aerial and waterborne drone activity, small craft attacks, and illegal boardings. There’s also a risk of misidentification and collateral exposure for vessels that aren’t the intended targets.
US MARAD Advisories and AIS Guidance
The US Maritime Administration (MARAD) is keeping its advisories for US-flagged vessels at a heightened level. This includes guidance on turning off AIS in the southern Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Bab el Mandeb unless safety is at stake, while recommending that AIS remain on in the Persian Gulf. This aligns with industry reminders that AIS policies are determined by flag states and individual companies. The evidence is mixed on whether turning off AIS actually lowers the risk of being targeted, and if an incident occurs, it can be tricky to provide support for ships that are silent electronically.
Industry Security Frameworks
In terms of industry standards, the updated MISTO (as of November 26, 2025) should be read alongside the BMP Maritime Security (BMP MS, March 2025). It continues to frame risk in terms of capability, intent, and opportunity, emphasising the importance of voyage-specific assessments, proper registration and reporting, and crew readiness rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all approach.
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Source: Safety4Sea
