The Panama Canal is planning a five-day closure of the west lane of the Pedro Miguel lock later in May 2025 for necessary maintenance work. However, shipping analysts at NETCO suggest that disruptions to traffic should be minimal. Their update points to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China as the reason for this anticipated smooth sailing. The trade conflict has resulted in decreased shipping volumes through the canal, leading to shorter waiting times and lower prices in the canal’s auction system for transit slots, reports Newsroom Panama.
Positive Trend
Analysts indicate a positive trend at the Panama Canal, with the number of unbooked regular-size vessels decreasing to fewer than 50 projected arrivals in the coming week. This contrasts with previous conditions where auction slots for these vessels were limited to two per day.
The reduced demand for slots is causing auction prices to fall. Last week’s highest bid for a regular-size vessel slot was $65,000, a significant decrease from the previous week’s highest bid of $101,000. NETCO interprets this as a sign of improving conditions at the canal.
Average waiting times have also decreased. Over the past week, southbound vessels experienced an average waiting time of 0.4 days, while northbound vessels waited 1.2 days.
NETCO attributes this improved situation to both softer market conditions and operational adjustments made by the Panama Canal Authority (PCA). However, they caution that this stability is fragile and closely linked to subdued traffic levels, particularly in the container, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and tanker segments.
Looking ahead, NETCO warns that a rebound in global trade demand in the second half of 2025 could increase pressure on the canal, potentially leading to renewed bottlenecks and cost volatility. They emphasize that continuous monitoring of transit slot availability, auction pricing, vessel queues, and rainfall patterns will be crucial in determining whether the current efficiencies can be sustained or if congestion is likely to return.
Restrictions In Place
During the dry chamber maintenance on the west lane of the Pedro Miguel lock from May 27th to 31st, the following restrictions will be in place:
- Supers (larger vessels): A maximum of seven supers can be booked for transit in each direction (northbound and southbound).
- Supers with daylight restrictions: Within the seven supers allowed in each direction, no more than two can have daylight restrictions.
- Available slots: The total number of available slots in the Panama locks will be reduced to 16 for the entire maintenance period.
- Second tiebreaker competition (May 13-17): Four booking slots will be offered to supers for booking dates during the maintenance period.
- Regular vessels: There will be no booking slots available for regular-sized vessels during the maintenance period.
- Third booking period: No booking slots will be offered for either supers or regular vessels during the third booking period.
Essentially, during this maintenance window, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is significantly limiting the number of transits, especially for regular-sized vessels, and imposing specific constraints on the booking of supers, including those with daylight restrictions.
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Source: Newsroom Panama
