- Red Sea transits add fresh downward rate pressure.
- US fronthauls are most exposed to softening demand.
- Mediterranean remains the strongest-performing lane.
Container freight markets are under increasing strain as capacity is growing at a faster pace than demand in key fronthaul trades. While spot rates are mostly stable, the trends in supply suggest that there’s limited potential for growth and a rising risk of decline. The gradual return of vessels to the Red Sea is adding even more pressure, particularly on routes heading to the US and Europe, reports Xeneta.
Market Outlook
Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “Looking at the fundamentals of supply and demand on major fronthaul trades right now and it doesn’t stack up, so something has to give. Spot rates are relatively flat even though offered capacity is going up, particularly from Far East to US East Coast, North Europe and Mediterranean.
“Carriers will try to push further rate increases in mid-December – and we may see a slight uptick – but this won’t last for too long due to the downward pressure from increasing supply. The impact of higher supply will be seen most acutely on US fronthauls where demand isn’t as strong compared to trades into Europe.
“There are increasing signs of a gradual return of container ships to the Red Sea region, highlighted most recently by CMA CGM INDAMEX service now transiting Suez Canal on fronthaul and backhauls voyages. This will only add to the downwards pressure on rates, particularly on trades from Far East to US East Coast and Europe, which transit the Suez Canal.”
Spot Rates Snapshot
Market averages as of 11 December 2025
- Far East–US West Coast: USD 1,861/FEU
- Far East–US East Coast: USD 2,709/FEU
- Far East–North Europe: USD 2,395/FEU
- Far East–Mediterranean: USD 3,330/FEU
- North Europe–US East Coast: USD 1,571/FEU
Capacity Trends
4-week rolling average, w/c 8 December 2025
- Far East–US West Coast: +1.7%
- Far East–US East Coast: +10.2%
- Far East–North Europe: +11.0%
- Far East–Mediterranean: +18.4%
- North Europe–US East Coast: –0.7%
Trade View Far East to the US East Coast
Spot rates have dipped slightly from last week and are down nearly 9% compared to last month, which shows a drop in demand. Capacity has surged both weekly and monthly, putting more downward pressure on rates, even though there haven’t been many short-term price changes.
Trade View Far East to North Europe
Rates have held steady week-on-week and are still up month-on-month. However, the significant increase in capacity suggests that either strong demand or careful management of capacity is keeping rates from dropping for the moment.
Trade View Far East to Mediterranean
This route continues to shine. Spot rates are significantly higher month-on-month, even with a rise in capacity, indicating that strong demand and high risk premiums are outweighing the extra supply.
Trade View North Europe to the US East Coast
Rates have remained mostly stable when looking at both weekly and monthly trends. Capacity has decreased since November, which helps maintain balance in the trade and protects it from the sharper fluctuations seen on Transpacific routes.
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Source: Xeneta
