- Sanctions accelerate retreat of Western-linked vessels.
- Freight rates signal worsening tonnage availability.
- Shadow fleet expansion is unlikely to fully close the gap.
Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain its crude exports, primarily due to a shortage of suitable tankers. A closer look at the vessels involved in trading Russian crude reveals a growing structural gap, fueled by stricter sanctions, heightened compliance risks, and the increasing operational challenges faced by shipowners. Recent measures from the US and EU aimed at networks linked to Rosneft and Lukoil have significantly raised both reputational and regulatory risks, which in turn have shrunk the number of vessels willing to transport Russian oil, reports Break Wave Advisors.
Visible Supply Shortfall
When we analyse the availability of vessels over the next three months, it becomes clear that there’s a significant tonnage gap. Even after factoring in ships that have recently loaded Russian crude, those that are sanctioned and yet to return, and tankers making their way to Russian ports, the fleet still falls short by about 6.5 million deadweight tons (dwt). That’s roughly equivalent to 53 Suezmax and Aframax vessels.
Limited Options to Fill the Gap
Russia has a couple of main strategies to address this shortfall. The first involves bringing older vessels from the second-hand market into what’s known as the shadow fleet, although only a few suitable candidates have been found. The second option is to redirect unsanctioned tankers that are currently transporting Russian refined products. Even with these efforts, there’s still likely to be a shortfall of around 11% compared to the loading requirements for the summer. This situation leaves Russia with a fundamental limitation on its crude export capacity, even though seaborne exports averaged 3.3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025.
Western Operators Pull Back
We’re already seeing a pullback from flexible, unsanctioned operators. For instance, Greek-operated vessels made up 24% of Russia’s crude voyages in June, but that number plummeted to just 10% by November. This decline started before the EU proposed a maritime transport ban, suggesting that operators were voluntarily stepping back in anticipation of stricter enforcement.
Freight Markets Show Signs of Tightening Supply
Freight rates from Russia to India have hit a 19-month high, and fleet utilisation has surged to a 21-month peak. The increase in crude volumes on the water and longer voyage durations indicates that the effective fleet is shrinking. In response, Russia is likely to ramp up its use of evasive logistics, which includes more dark ship-to-ship transfers and extended trade routes. This will only serve to further tie up vessels and worsen the supply crunch.
Export Resilience Facing Challenges
Although Russia’s crude exports have shown resilience in 2025, the pressure from enforcement is escalating faster than the availability of fleets. The future of Russia’s oil exports now depends less on production levels and more on access to physical vessels. If there aren’t enough ships available, the export operations could slow down, no matter how high the demand remains.
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Source: Break Wave Advisors
