- Greek involvement in the Urals trade falls to a 16-month low.
- Urals loadings decline 25% dragging overall exports lower.
- India increases Russian crude arrivals as China slows.
Russia’s seaborne crude exports saw a significant jump in October, reaching nearly 4 million barrels per day, the highest since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This increase was largely due to lower refinery operations caused by maintenance and Ukrainian drone strikes, which allowed for more crude to be available for export, reports Break Wave Advisors.
November Sanctions Deadline Creates Export Challenges
With the sanctions deadline for Lukoil and Rosneft on November 21 now behind us, Russian crude is likely to encounter more logistical hurdles. As a result, export volumes for November are already showing signs of weakness.
Greek Involvement in Urals Trade Drops Dramatically
Between November 1 and 24, Russia’s total crude and condensate exports plummeted by 20% month-on-month, falling below both last year’s figures and the average from 2016 to 2024. This decline was primarily driven by a 25% drop in Urals shipments. Greek operators, who have historically played a significant role, cut their participation by nearly 15 percentage points, reaching a 16-month low. Their involvement had been close to 50% in June 2025, making this retreat a significant concern for Urals liftings from Russia West in the near term.
Indian Imports Increase as Chinese Arrivals Decline
Seaborne deliveries of Russian crude (excluding CPC and KEBCO) to India rose by 20% month-on-month, while shipments to China fell by 12%. India’s increased imports likely reflect efforts to secure cargoes from September and October ahead of the November 21 deadline.
Ballast Vessel Trends Indicate a Strained Supply Chain
Recent vessel movements suggest that the supply chain is becoming increasingly stretched. Fewer tankers are returning to Russia West after unloading, a 10-percentage-point decrease for September loaders compared to August. Notably, 8% of the tankers that loaded in September headed to Duqm, indicating early signs of tonnage tightness and a growing dependence on long-haul repositioning.
Growing STS Activity in the Middle East Gulf
There’s a noticeable uptick in vessels gathering in established ship-to-ship (STS) zones in the Middle East Gulf. The first STS transfer involving Russian crude took place in May 2024, and the recent clustering of vessels suggests that the use of STS chains is on the rise. Additionally, 20% of the loaders in October made their way to the Suez Canal area after unloading in Asia, hinting at preparations for STS operations as this region becomes more active for Russian crude transfers.
Outlook: Export Strains vs. Emerging Workarounds
Looking ahead, Russia is grappling with challenges in maintaining high levels of crude exports from its Western region. Signs like tonnage constraints and a lengthening supply chain are early indicators of trouble. On the bright side, the arrival of new vessels in the trade could help alleviate some of this pressure. If new commercial players can step in effectively to take over roles previously held by Lukoil and Rosneft in certain trades, we might see continued flows through direct voyages, possibly even utilising Greek-operated ships that comply with price caps.
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Source: Break Wave Advisors
