Russia Wraps Up Final Arctic LNG Shipment As Winter Ice Returns

With thick winter sea ice closing in across the Arctic, Russia has likely completed its final liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipment of the year via the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The seasonal shipping lane, typically accessible from June to November, has now shut down for winter, shifting Russian LNG flows back toward Europe for the coming months.

LNG Shipments to Asia Slow as Ice Limits the NSR

Russia sent its first 2025 NSR cargo aboard Georgiy Ushakov on June 20, and the final shipment is currently en route on the Boris Vilkitsky. Between the Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 plants, Novatek managed to export nearly 3 million tonnes of LNG to Asia, mostly to China.

However, output from Yamal LNG fell 18% year-on-year due to maintenance. The project shipped 1.96 million tonnes across 28 cargoes, down sharply from 35 shipments last year. China received at least 20 of those cargoes.

Arctic LNG 2, still operating under U.S. sanctions imposed in 2023, exported 14 shipments totaling 840,000 tonnes. China enabled these flows by designating the Beihai terminal as a quarantine zone protected from Western sanctions. The UK has since sanctioned the terminal, but the U.S. and EU have yet to impose similar measures.

A number of these cargoes had been loaded in 2024 and kept afloat aboard LNG carriers and floating storage units until China accepted them.

Ice-Class Vessel Shortages Threaten Future Arctic Exports

For Yamal LNG, Novatek uses a fleet of fourteen Arc7 ice-class tankers capable of handling harsh winter conditions. One additional vessel, Christophe de Margerie, shifted to Arctic LNG 2 operations after sanctions targeted the tanker.

Arctic LNG 2 faces deeper constraints. It relies heavily on a “shadow fleet” of mixed-capability vessels with unclear ownership and insurance. In 2025, the project used ten different LNG carriers, but only one Christophe de Margerie is a high ice-class ship. This means that exports will be sharply reduced for the next eight months until ice conditions ease.

Russia has made little progress in expanding its domestic ice-capable fleet. The Zvezda shipyard has delivered just one Arctic-ready tanker the Valentin Pikul in recent years.

Limited vessel availability, combined with thick ice in the western Laptev and eastern East Siberian seas, also led to a 4.2% drop in crude oil shipments along the NSR this year, again with China as the primary buyer.

Russia’s Arctic LNG logistics face growing pressure from both winter conditions and tightening Western sanctions. With the EU set to ban Russian gas imports beginning January 1, 2027 and phase out short-term contracts by mid-2026 Novatek is preparing for major shifts in its export strategy. Increasingly, Russia is turning to ship-to-ship transfers to reroute cargoes, including its first-ever “dark fleet” LNG transfer off Malaysia in 2025. As ice returns and geopolitical constraints tighten, Russia’s ability to maintain LNG flows via the Arctic will depend heavily on expanding its ice-class fleet and securing alternative markets.