The maritime security landscape witnessed a dramatic escalation this week with one of the largest coordinated strikes on Ukraine’s port infrastructure since the onset of the war. On May 23, 2025, Russian forces launched a major assault targeting the critical ports of Odesa and Chernomorsk, deploying an estimated 367 drones and missiles across Ukraine, reports Dryad Global.
Threat To Supply Chain
Recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, particularly those targeting Odesa and Chernomorsk on May 23, signify a dramatic escalation in the Black Sea maritime conflict. While Moscow asserts these strikes were aimed at military assets—including a containership allegedly carrying drones and ammunition—the damage to civilian port infrastructure and its disruptive impact on cargo handling and grain export operations are undeniable. This comes just as Ukraine’s port exports had begun to recover to pre-war levels, supported by a Navy-secured maritime corridor.
This offensive follows two significant Ukrainian actions:
- A drone strike on Russia’s Boyko Towers oil platform in the Black Sea on May 19, reportedly affected Russia’s radar and surveillance capabilities.
- An unverified drone attack on President Putin’s helicopter over Kursk Oblast on May 20, which Russia claims was intercepted by its air defense.
These incidents, coupled with the collapse of the fragile ceasefire established in March, have created a highly volatile environment. Maritime security firm Dryad Global has increased its assessment of the likelihood of intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine’s ports and Black Sea shipping to 70–80%. This heightened threat level encompasses elevated risks from naval mines and GPS interference, resulting in soaring war risk insurance premiums. The damage to the ports is expected to take months to over a year to repair, further hindering global grain supply chains.
Other Developments
Red Sea: Houthi forces have announced a blockade on Israel’s Port of Haifa, a move that could significantly escalate tensions in the already volatile region. This declaration adds a new layer of uncertainty for commercial shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Baltic Sea: The maritime stand-off between Russia and NATO is intensifying, with reports indicating an increase in Russian naval escorts for tankers, particularly those associated with the “shadow fleet.” This comes after recent airspace violations and accusations of “Baltic piracy” by Russia against inspection efforts by EU states.
Indian Ocean: An oil spill disaster is unfolding off India’s coast near Kerala. A Liberian-flagged cargo ship, the MSC ELSA 3, carrying approximately 450 tonnes of oil and 640 containers (some with hazardous substances), sank on May 25. The Indian Coast Guard is actively engaged in containment efforts, with concerns about long-term ecological impact despite initial reports that the spill is largely contained.
Southeast Asia: ReCAAP (Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia) reported three armed robbery incidents between May 13 and May 19. All three incidents occurred onboard ships underway off Pulau Cula, Indonesia, in the eastbound lane of the Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) of the Singapore Strait.
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Source: Dryad Global
