- G7-based tankers lifted 39% of Russia’s seaborne crude in June, highest since Nov 2023
- Greek operators played a dominant role, lifting 24.5 million barrels
- Safety risks like limpet mines now concern shipowners more than sanctions
- Urals crude mostly trades below the $60/b price cap, enabling more mainstream shipping
In June, tankers using G7 services—including those flagged, owned, or operated by firms in the G7, EU, Australia, Switzerland, or Norway—lifted over 39% of Russia’s 3.36 million b/d seaborne crude exports. This marks the highest share since November 2023, nearly doubling May’s figure of 19%.
Analysts attribute the increase to Urals crude prices remaining mostly below the $60/b G7 price cap, making shipments compliant with sanctions. Brief price spikes occurred during geopolitical flare-ups, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, but overall pricing has supported mainstream participation.
Gibson Shipbrokers’ research head, Richard Matthews, noted that sanctions-related fears have eased as Western regulators shift focus to targeting shadow fleet operators over conventional shipping companies.
Greek Firms Regain Pole Position
Greece-based tanker companies lifted 24.5 million barrels of Russian crude in June—their highest monthly volume since August 2023—mainly via Suezmax and Aframax vessels from Black Sea and Baltic ports to India and Turkey. Freight rates on these routes ranged from $5 million to $6.5 million lump-sum per voyage.
June marked the first time Greek operators topped the restricted trade since February 2024, surpassing competitors in China, the UAE, Seychelles, and Hong Kong, who still maintain significant market shares without relying on G7-aligned services.
Shadow Fleet Faces Rising Scrutiny
While the US has largely refrained from recent sanctions enforcement under President Trump, UK and EU authorities have intensified pressure on the shadow fleet. The UK sanctioned 20 additional oil tankers in June, following earlier rounds targeting 128 vessels. The EU added 189 tankers in May but has struggled to advance further measures due to resistance from Hungary and Slovakia.
Security Risks Overshadow Compliance Fears
Despite increased participation from G7-aligned owners, safety concerns have taken center stage. Six tankers with prior Russian trade have been struck by unexplained blasts, possibly from limpet mines. Although no severe damage or casualties were reported, security advisors warn owners to remain vigilant when operating in or near Russian waters.
Matthews concluded, “Owners could be cautious” about engaging in sanctioned-compliant Russian crude trade—not due to legal risk, but growing concerns over vessel security.
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Source: S&P Global