- Vessel-Tracked Data Shows Record Discharges in 2025.
- Gap Emerges Between Official Imports and AIS-Tracked Volumes.
- Shadow Fleet Operations Boost Singapore’s Role.
Russian fuel oil discharges in Singapore have reached an all-time high in 2025, according to tanker tracking data, even as Western sanctions on Moscow’s maritime energy trade tighten. This surge underscores the impressive resilience of Russian supply chains and suggests that lower-cost fuel oil feedstock remains readily available in the regional blending market, reports S&P Global.
Vessel-Tracked Data Shows Sharp Increase
As of December 3, around 5.5 million metric tons of Russian fuel oil and residues were discharged in Singapore, marking a staggering 40% increase compared to the previous year, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS). This figure represents the highest annual volume since CAS began tracking this data in 2016, not counting “unobserved” cargoes where gaps in AIS signals or proximity issues made it impossible to confirm terminal discharges.
In contrast, official data from Enterprise Singapore indicates that Russian fuel oil imports were about 3.7 million metric tons during the same timeframe, revealing a discrepancy of roughly 1.8 million metric tons. Enterprise Singapore has chosen not to comment on this difference.
Shadow Fleet Activity Boosts Singapore’s Role
According to CAS data, Singapore has emerged as one of the top three global destinations for Russian heavy distillates discharged in 2025, largely due to shadow fleet operations occurring east of Peninsular Malaysia. While trading Russian fuel oil isn’t illegal, it does come with increased compliance risks under EU price cap regulations, as noted by a maritime lawyer based in Singapore.
A trading analyst pointed out that although most traders steer clear of Russian seaborne products due to the risks associated with sanctions, purchases can still happen when the market conditions are favourable. Both sources requested to remain anonymous. May turned out to be the busiest month, with discharges reaching 773,000 metric tons, the highest monthly level since March 2019, according to CAS data.
Jurong Port Takes the Lead in Fuel Oil Handling
Jurong Port Universal Terminal (JPUT), Singapore’s largest oil storage facility, has been busy handling over half of all Russian fuel oil discharges, which amounts to around 3 million metric tons. When asked about this, JPUT confirmed that they are fully compliant with all relevant regulations, including sanctions.
“JPUT maintains a robust due diligence process, which includes sanctions screening. If any nominated vessels and/or cargoes are found to be sanctioned, JPUT will not allow such vessels to berth and/or cargoes to be discharged,” JPUT’s compliance department said.
Understanding the Sanctions Framework and Price Cap Pressures
Russian seaborne petroleum products fall under the G7-EU price cap regime, allowing shipping and insurance services only if the cargoes are bought at or below the set cap. The EU has established a fuel oil cap at $45 per barrel, roughly translating to about $301.50 per metric ton. In stark contrast, Singapore’s bunker fuel prices have been soaring, averaging well over $400 per metric ton in 2025. As of December 3, the FOB Singapore 380 CST HSFO was averaging $421 per metric ton, while the 180 CST grade was at $427.8 per metric ton, according to Platts.
Effects of New US Sanctions
The landscape has become even more uncertain with the US sanctions imposed on major Russian oil companies on November 21, which include a complete transaction ban and the possibility of secondary sanctions. Before these measures, these companies were exporting around 290,000 barrels per day of residual fuel oil in 2025, as reported by S&P Global Energy CERA. The expanded sanctions heighten compliance risks, as noted by a maritime lawyer based in Singapore, although trading might continue if enforcement isn’t strict.
“The risks come from enforcement actions taken in the US and EU, and if you are not exposed to those jurisdictions, then you are effectively immune.”
STS Activity Complicates Reporting
Market players have pointed out that the discrepancies between official import data and vessel-tracked discharges could be due to variations in customs filings, product definitions, and ship-to-ship blending activities occurring in Singapore’s waters.
“Ship-to-ship bunker fuel blending operations, a common practice to meet bunker fuel specifications, further complicate the situation,” said CAS analyst Benjamin Tang. Unobserved Russian-origin fuel oil discharges stood at 698,000 mt as of Dec. 3, though CAS noted that total unobserved discharges at Singapore have remained broadly stable year on year.
Fuel Oil Volumes Hold Steady
According to CAS, total fuel oil and residue discharges at the Port of Singapore reached 31.6 million metric tons as of December 3, which is consistent with figures from previous years. The total discharges for the full year were 33.5 million metric tons in 2024 and 32 million metric tons in 2023. CAS analysts mentioned that their data is based on AIS vessel tracking, algorithms, third-party information, and analyst judgment, which differs from the official customs-based reporting systems.
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Source: S&P Global
