Russia, according to Ukraine and many Western commentators, is about to unleash a fresh, massive onslaught, but it will probably run into a mud pit, as reported by CNBC.
Rasputitsa
The war-torn country’s fields and rural roads are anticipated to become impassable for troops and tanks in the coming weeks as frozen ground conditions in Ukraine give way to a thaw.
From Napoleon Bonaparte’s invasion of Russia in 1812 was famously slowed by the mud in Ukraine, to Adolf Hitler’s Nazi forces floundering in muddy conditions as they invaded the then-Soviet Union in 1941, Ukraine’s infamous muddy season, known as “rasputitsa,” which refers to the season that comes in late fall and early spring, has surprised numerous armies over the centuries.
Despite its notoriety and yearly frequency, the mud nevertheless surprised Russian soldiers after they invaded Ukraine in February of last year with pictures and videos posted online showing their tanks and armoured vehicles immobilised and abandoned in the mud, much to Ukraine’s delight. However, it goes without saying that its own forces are not impervious to the issue.
Despite the fact that the war has changed since the previous soggy spring, with Russia now concentrating its forces on an anticipated, massive offensive aimed at fully occupying eastern Ukraine (and possibly including Zaporizhzhia in the south and the northeastern Kharkiv region), the arrival of spring is anticipated to bring both familiar challenges for both sides and uncertainty about the course the conflict will take.
Impact of weather
The U.K. Ministry of Defense stated on Thursday that “the weather continues to have a crucial impact on the trajectory of Russia’s campaign in Ukraine.”
It started in a Twitter intelligence update that there had probably not been much of a change in cross-country mobility (CCM) circumstances in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks due to the ground being frozen.
However, the ministry stated that forecasts indicate rising soil temperatures and snowmelt are anticipated to worsen cross-country movement in the Donbas over the course of the upcoming week.
“During mid- to late-March, cross-country movement is expected to be at its worst due to severely muddy conditions.” The Defense Ministry noted that commanders on both sides will likely want to avoid planning significant offensives during these times.
However, as Russia’s invasion in late February 2022 showed, “perceived political or operational changes can trump such misgivings.”
War changing
Some Western analysts believed that the brutal winter in Ukraine would give both Russian and Ukrainian forces a chance to reorganise and rearm ahead of spring offensives, but the conflict has persisted, especially in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
According to analysts, Russia will start a fresh, massive onslaught within the next few weeks and may try to advance before the “rasputitsa” takes hold.
Max Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, noted the spring “rasputitsa” is more of a challenge than the autumnal one as it becomes “even more difficult for vehicles and materiel to travel through given the thaw of the frozen earth and snowpack.”
That said, he noted in a statement to CNBC on Thursday, “the current status of the fronts is rather different from what was seen in late autumn with lines consolidated during the winter.”
Before the mud comes, Ukraine must deal with important issues as its forces watch as Russian forces gradually approach and encircle the Donetsk city of Bakhmut. Although Ukraine has sworn to continue fighting, the city is currently in a dangerous position, raising the question of whether it will withdraw its forces.
Marginal tactical win
The area around Bakhmut is where Russia is currently focusing its effort, costing it thousands of soldiers for, at most, a marginal tactical win and propaganda advantage. Attacks there and in a few other locations along the line of control in Donetsk “are primarily infantry assaults on defended positions so these will not be greatly impacted by the rasputitsa and Russian officials show no signs of allowing attacks to abate,” Hess said.
Given recent Russian operations on the villages of Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske, which guard Bakhmut’s main supply routes from Kostyatynivka, Hess cautioned, “Bakhmut is at risk of succumbing imminently.”
While the weather makes it even less likely that Russia will be able to take advantage of potential advances in Bakhmut by subsequently breaching Ukrainian lines to the west, he added, “I don’t think it will impact its desire to participate in such infantry-heavy assaults.”
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Source: CNBC
