Russia’s seaborne crude exports surged in May 2025, reaching their highest levels since October 2024. Lower prices for Russia’s Urals crude, combined with increased OPEC+ output and refinery downtime, allowed more barrels to reach global markets—despite ongoing Western sanctions.
Export Surge Driven by Lower Prices and OPEC+ Boost
According to S&P Global data, Russia exported an average of 3.68 million barrels per day (b/d) in May, up 165,000 b/d from April. This rise coincided with a drop in Urals crude prices, which have stayed below the G7 price cap of $60/b since early April. The price fall has made it easier for Russian oil to be transported using Western-insured and flagged vessels without breaching sanctions.
OPEC+’s surprising move to raise output—adding 411,000 b/d in May with plans for similar hikes in June and July—also contributed to softer global prices, making Urals crude more competitive.
Stable Demand from Asia, New Flow to Japan
Russia’s top buyers, India and China, maintained stable intake levels at 1.67 million b/d and 1.11 million b/d respectively. Exports to Turkey rose by 60,000 b/d to reach a four-month high. Notably, a cargo of Sakhalin Blend crude was sent to Japan, marking the first such shipment since 2022, signaling slight flexibility in Japan’s approach amid evolving market dynamics.
Sanctions Loopholes and Strategic Maintenance
Despite EU and UK efforts to blacklist over 200 ships involved in Russian oil transport, the drop in Urals prices to an average of $51.31/b in May has allowed legal use of Western maritime services under the G7 price cap rule.
Additionally, 645,000 b/d of Russian refining capacity remains offline due to seasonal maintenance, pushing more crude into the export market and sustaining high seaborne volumes.
Russia is leveraging lower prices, strategic refinery downtime, and OPEC+ dynamics to maintain strong oil exports under sanctions. As Western regulators push for tighter enforcement and a possible revision of the price cap, the evolving landscape will test how long Moscow can sustain this export momentum under economic pressure.
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Source: S&P Global
