S&P Global Commodity Insights reports that Russian crude exports fell sharply in November as new US sanctions took effect and the EU prepared additional restrictions. These measures created fresh pressure on both crude and refined-product markets, and they also shifted several key maritime trade routes.
Crude Exports Slide as Sanctions Expand
Russian crude exports dropped to 3.34 million b/d in November. This was a 17% fall from October and a 6% decline from last year. It also marked the lowest level since February.
Because of the sanctions, import patterns changed quickly. Exports to India fell 57% month on month. Shipments to China dropped 25%, and flows to Turkey fell 43%. These large declines show how geopolitical actions can reshape tanker activity and disrupt familiar supply routes.
On Nov. 21, US sanctions on major Russian oil companies took effect. The measures included a full transaction ban and the possibility of secondary sanctions for trading partners. As a result, discounts on Russia’s main crude grade widened through November.
A major Indian refiner reacted early. It stopped importing Russian crude for its export-focused facilities and began taking more barrels from the Middle East instead. This move signaled how buyers may adjust quickly when compliance expectations rise.
The EU also announced a new ban on refined products made from Russian oil. This rule will begin on Jan. 21 and aims to block indirect shipments entering through alternative channels. Because of this, traders and refiners are rethinking procurement plans.
Product Markets Stay Under Pressure
Russian refined-product exports hovered around 2 million b/d in November. This marked the third month of slight increases, but volumes still remained below levels recorded between early 2022 and late 2025.
However, product supply faced new challenges. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining assets caused disruptions and reduced output. Analysts noted that these attacks pushed refiners to focus more on domestic needs, which limited export capacity.
Growing Risks Around Tanker Safety
Analysts also pointed to a shift in risk patterns. While earlier attacks targeted naval vessels, two recent strikes hit commercial tankers. They described this as a move toward broader economic pressure on Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
Because of these risks, tanker operators now face more uncertainty across several trade routes.
Turkey’s diesel and gasoil imports from Russia fell to a 34-month low in November. Local buyers grew more cautious after the latest US sanctions. In addition, a Turkish ship manager announced that it would stop all Russia-linked operations. The company cited safety concerns after explosions involving one of its tankers near West Africa and rising attacks in the Black Sea. The vessel had been carrying gasoil loaded from Russia’s Black Sea ports.
A Market Reshaped by Policy, Risk, and Shifting Trade Routes
Together, these events demonstrate how rapidly sanctions, security risks, and new regulations can transform maritime trade. They also affect freight demand, routing choices, maritime safety planning, and compliance strategies tied to evolving IMO regulations. As the market enters 2026, these factors are likely to continue influencing tanker flows and operational decisions.
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Source: S&P Global
