Saskatchewan Targets 600,000 b/d: Crude Production to Surge

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A provincial government official announced that Saskatchewan, Canada, has set a goal to achieve a 31% increase in crude oil production, reaching approximately 600,000 b/d by 2030, as part of its annual incremental growth plans, as reported by S&P Global.

Increased oil production

Saskatchewan plans to increase its oil production incrementally until 2030, focusing on technologies like steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) to boost output while reducing its carbon footprint. The province, home to the Bakken tight oil formation, has seen investments in new techniques such as water flooding and multistage fracking. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted Saskatchewan’s oil production, dropping from 502,000 b/d in March 2020 to 361,000 b/d by May. However, the province has been steadily recovering, with production reaching an average of 444,000 b/d in 2021 and projected to reach 462,000 b/d in the current year. The data also indicate a forecasted increase in oil output to 475,000 b/d in 2024 and 494,000 b/d in 2025. Saskatchewan’s natural gas production, on the other hand, is expected to decline from 366,000 Mcf/d in 2023 to 345,000 Mcf/d in 2025.

Investments, land tenures

Saskatchewan, the second-largest crude oil producer in Canada, aims to meet demand from provincial and US refineries while attracting investments. Alberta leads with a production of 3.491 million b/d, followed by Newfoundland and Labrador at 217,675 b/d. The province expects oil and gas capital expenditure to increase from C$3.4 billion in 2023 to C$4 billion in 2024. The sale of crown oil and natural gas lands has garnered significant interest, with successful bids totalling C$9.4 million in the latest round. Saskatchewan’s competitive investment system generated C$23.6 million in 2023, with an average of C$490/ha.

More market access, TMX

Saskatchewan seeks additional market access for its growing crude production, anticipating opportunities from Trans Mountain Expansion and potential changes in Enbridge’s Mainline. Currently, a significant portion of the province’s crude flows to the US Midwest and Gulf Coast through Enbridge’s pipeline. The completion of Trans Mountain Expansion in early 2024 is expected to provide WCSB producers with an alternative route to ship additional barrels to Canada’s Pacific Coast, thereby creating more capacity on the Mainline. Meanwhile, North Dakota’s Bakken Basin has witnessed an increase in crude production, with forecasts indicating further growth in the coming years.


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Source: S&P Global


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