Scientists say that the bushfires ravaging Australia are a clear sign of what is to come around the world if temperatures are allowed to rise to dangerous levels, reports BBC.
Prof Richard Betts from the Met Office Hadley Centre said we are “seeing a sign of what would be normal conditions under a future warming world of 3C“.
While natural weather patterns have driven recent fires, researchers said it’s “common sense” that human-induced heating is playing a role. Last year was Australia’s warmest and driest year on record.
Analysis of climate changes
UK researchers have carried out a rapid analysis of the impact of climate change on the risk of wildfires happening all over the world. Their study looked at 57 research papers published since the last major review of climate science came out in 2013.
All the studies in the review showed links between climate change and the increased frequency or severity of fire weather.
This is defined as those periods of time which have a higher risk of fire due to a combination of high temperatures, low humidity, low rainfall and high winds.
The signal of human-induced warming has become clearer in different parts of the world with the passage of time.
A paper published last year suggests the impact of climate change could be detected outside the range of natural variability in 22% of land that’s available for burning.
“Overall, the 57 papers reviewed clearly show human-induced warming has already led to a global increase in the frequency and severity of fire weather, increasing the risks of wildfire,” said Dr Matthew Jones, from the University of East Anglia, and the lead author of the review.
He added, “This has been seen in many regions, including the western US and Canada, southern Europe, Scandinavia and Amazonia. Human-induced warming is also increasing fire risks in other regions, including Siberia and Australia.”
However, the review says that the dramatic fire situation witnessed in Australia in recent months is “challenging to diagnose“.
Naturally occurring weather patterns have played a significant role in creating the right conditions for wildfires. Conditions in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific have meant hot, dry spells across the country.
Influence of human-driven climate change
“This (the fires) would have happened naturally but we can be confident that they have been made hotter because of man-made climate change,” said Prof Betts.
The UEA will produce a study on carbon cycle feedbacks before the COP26 UN climate conference in Glasgow in November, when countries are expected to give stronger commitments on greenhouse gas emissions to fulfil the aims of the 2015 Paris agreement.
Betts added: “We are not going to reverse climate change, so the conditions that are happening now will not go away. These weather patterns will keep happening. If climate change continues, they will get more severe.”
However, there is still a chance of avoiding the worst effects by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Betts said: “It is getting worse all the time. The sooner we rein back emissions, the sooner we can slow the increase.”
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Source: BBC
