A new analysis from Sea-Intelligence highlights that carriers are likely to announce more blank sailings than currently scheduled as China’s Golden Week approaches. The report warns that present reductions fall short of historical averages, signaling a wave of late adjustments ahead.
Blank Sailings: A Strategic Response to Demand Dips
Carriers typically adjust to the temporary downturn in export demand during China’s Golden Week—an annual holiday marked by factories closing and reduced shipping volumes—by deploying “blank sailings.” This involves skipping scheduled voyages to better align vessel supply with lower cargo flow and maintain market equilibrium.
As of August 27, 2025, carriers have confirmed minimal capacity reductions for the upcoming four-week Golden Week period. On the Asia–North America West Coast trade lane, only 3.8% of capacity is currently being trimmed. By contrast, last year’s reduction stood at 15.4%, and the pre-pandemic average (2017–2019) was 9.3%. To reach 2024 levels, approximately 21 additional sailings would need to be blanked. Similarly, the Transpacific trade lanes are showing significantly fewer blank sailings than historically observed.
Given the modest current reductions and historically last-minute announcements, analysts expect carriers will ramp up blank sailings as Golden Week nears. With only about five weeks remaining, such late-stage capacity cuts are a familiar tactic—often stressful for shippers but instrumental for carriers balancing volatile freight rates and softening demand.
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Source: Sea-Intelligence
