Seaborne Oil Exports Surge on Rising Global Production

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Mfame Editor
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  • 2025 Oil Flows Surpass 700 Million Barrels in September.
  • Saudi Arabia, Russia, and U.S. Production Hits Record Highs.
  • OPEC+ Adds 137,000 b/d from November to Support Supply Outlook.

This week’s analysis dives into the shifting trends in dirty freight and supply across the Arabian Gulf (AG), West Africa (WAFR), and the Mediterranean. We’re seeing a significant uptick in outbound crude volumes from Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Russia. In fact, seaborne oil exports jumped by 10.4% year-on-year in September, marking the biggest annual increase since early 2023, reports Break Wave Advisors.

Record-High Exports and Production Levels

Exports in 2025 have consistently outpaced those of 2024, exceeding 700 million barrels in September alone. This ongoing strength is backed by rising oil production:

  1. Saudi Arabia is nearing 9.8 mbd
  2. Russia is approaching the OPEC+ ceiling of 9.415 mbd
  3. The U.S. is projected to hit a record high of 13.5 mbd

The OPEC+ decision to add 137,000 b/d starting in November further bolsters strong supply expectations, indicating that seaborne volumes and vessel utilisation in long-haul West-to-East trades are likely to stay high.

India’s Rising Crude Imports

India is set to ramp up its imports of discounted Russian crude, according to vessel-tracking data. In September, arrivals hit 55.9 million barrels, which is a 17.38% increase from the previous month, though it’s down 1.87% compared to last year. Early October figures show seaborne arrivals at nearly 2.0 million b/d, up from 1.0 million b/d in early September. This reflects wider Urals discounts of $2–$2.50 per barrel below Dated Brent, compared to about $1 per barrel in July and August.

VLCC Freight Rate Corrections

VLCC rates softened in early October after a sharp rally in Q3:

  1. MEG–China: down 16% to WS 68.5
  2. MEG–Singapore: down 18.6% to WS 70
  3. MEG–USG: down 10% to WS 45
  4. WAF–China: eased 7.5% to WS 74

Suezmax Segment Rate Movements

The Suezmax rates have been a bit of a mixed bag lately:

  1. West Africa to UKC: up 12.8%, now at WS 110
  2. MEG to Far East: up 8.5%, reaching WS 127.5
  3. Black Sea to Med: down 1.7%, sitting at WS 142.5
  4. MEG to Med: up 6.6%, now at WS 105

Reduced Congestion at Key Ports

The congestion of VLCCs at Chinese discharge ports has eased, dropping to an average of 32 vessels from 47 in early November 2024. While this is an improvement, it’s still higher than the early-year low of 20. In the Arabian Gulf, congestion has also seen a significant decrease, falling from 60 vessels mid-year to just 31. This suggests that vessel turnaround times are getting better and loading operations are becoming more efficient.

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Source: Break Wave Advisors