Distance forms a crucial element in the world of seaborne trade, especially, while determining how much demand for vessel capacity is created by trade volumes.
The estimated average haul of global seaborne trade. Is an important parameter in this aspect. The task is rather difficult to follow the historical trend in this regard.
Statistics for the period 2000-15 (15 years)
- Estimated global seaborne trade increased by 70% from 6.4bn tonnes to 10.8bn tonnes.
- The total in terms of tonne-miles jumped 71% from around 31,300 to 53,500 billion tonne-miles.
With the above data, the ‘average haul’ of each tonne of seaborne trade did not move too much across the period as a whole, inching up from 4,926 to 4,944 miles. This gives an average upward trend of just 1.3 miles per year.
Region-wise trend
The Middle East and West Africa: In the 3-year period 2000-02, the overall average haul declined. Crude trade volumes were falling, particularly on some of the long-haul trades.
Australia-Far East: The average haul of dry bulk trade was declining with a firm rise in coal volumes. In containers, the fastest growth was being seen on some of the intra-regional trades.
The Americas and the Far East: However, in 2003-06, average haul rose again, almost back to 2000 levels, with firm increases in the average haul of iron ore and grain trade on the back of growing exports from the Americas to the Far East.
Asia:During the period 2007-09, the average haul headed downwards once more. This included a drop in the average haul of coal trade on the back of a rise in short-haul Asian imports. The average haul of container cargoes fell in 2007-08, partly driven by a strong increase in short-haul intra-Asian trade.
China: During the period 2010-15, the overall average haul increased a rise in the average haul of crude oil, underpinned by Chinese import growth, leaving us almost exactly back where we started in 2000.
Conclusion
Thus, as per the above global scenario, it is clear that it is the expansion in volumes which has accounted for the lion’s share of the additional seaborne tonne-miles in the last 15 years.
However, the trade patterns in individual cargo types do change. The possible impact of new trades cannot be ruled out. There are still parts of the global trade matrix to fill out further.
The average haul has not really changed too much in this century. The recent trend is upwards. However, intra-regional trading blocs are becoming more cemented.
The best approach may be to follow the advice of many a wise shipowner in challenging times: keep the cargo moving.
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Source: Clarksons Research
