- Weekly capacity volatility on Asia–North Europe services more than doubled post-2020, reaching nearly 30%.
- Asia–Mediterranean trade lanes showed similar volatility increases during the same period.
- Transpacific routes experienced a smaller increase in volatility, rising from 20% to approximately 30%.
- Unstable weekly capacity is a significant factor contributing to the ongoing congestion issues at European ports.
The weekly capacity of individual liner services on major East-West trade routes has become significantly more volatile and less predictable since the pandemic. This shift has led to uneven cargo arrivals at ports, especially on the Asia-Europe lanes, where capacity fluctuations have more than doubled. These irregular flows are contributing to ongoing congestion challenges at key terminals. Factors such as varied vessel sizes, blank sailings, and delays continue to disrupt the consistency of weekly TEU capacity. A 52-week rolling analysis highlights a clear structural change in this pattern since 2020, according to data published by Sea-Intelligence.
Rising Volatility in Weekly Capacity Disrupts Asia-Europe Trade Lanes
On the Asia–North Europe route, weekly capacity volatility has seen a sharp rise in recent years. Between 2011 and 2019, this volatility averaged a steady 12.3%, generally ranging between 10% and 15%. However, during the 2021–2025 period, the average more than doubled, reaching 29.6%. A similar pattern was observed on the Asia-Mediterranean lane, reflecting a substantial structural change across Asia–Europe services.
Although the Transpacific trades also experienced increased volatility, the scale was less dramatic. On both the Asia–North America West Coast and East Coast routes, pre-pandemic volatility rose from around 20% to nearly 30%—a rise of roughly 50%. While notable, these changes are less extreme compared to the Asia–Europe trades.
This greater inconsistency in weekly capacity has created logistical challenges for ports and terminals, which rely on steady, predictable vessel calls. The intensified fluctuations in cargo flows, particularly on the Asia–Europe corridor, have become a key contributor to the persistent congestion issues faced by European ports.
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Source: Sea-Intelligence
