- A new report highlights increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in international shipping, countering the IMO’s 2030 emissions reduction targets.
- The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reduced emissions, but recovery brought higher transport demand, speeds, and emissions.
- Stagnant efficiency improvements and regulatory gaps underline the need for robust interventions to meet decarbonization goals.
- The report emphasizes aligning fleet capacity with demand and enforcing stringent regulatory measures to improve operational efficiency.
A recent report released by UCL Energy Institute and UMAS and reported by Offshore Energy on November 13, 2024, reveals a concerning increase in international shipping emissions. This trend stands in stark contrast to the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) goal of reducing emissions by 20-30% by 2030, based on 2008 levels. The findings underscore the urgent need for stronger regulatory frameworks and operational strategies to reverse the rise in emissions and align with global decarbonization objectives.
Emissions Trends and Sectoral Insights
Between 2018 and 2022, GHG emissions in international shipping grew, while carbon intensity reductions slowed. Key contributors, including container ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers, and cruise ships, showed limited efficiency gains as the overall transport work expanded. The temporary decline in emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by reduced trade, reversed sharply in 2021 with a trade surge, increasing speeds and overall emissions.
Efficiency Gains and Regulatory Challenges
The report highlights a plateau in efficiency gains achieved since the early 2010s, attributed to weak market incentives and limited regulatory impact, particularly from the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). Carbon intensity reductions slowed to 1.1% annually between 2018 and 2022, compared to 3% annually in the preceding decade. This stagnation reflects a lack of robust regulatory drivers to push beyond initial efficiency improvements.
Operational and Utilization Inefficiencies
Fleet utilization challenges further contributed to emissions growth. Many ships spent increased time at berth, carried smaller cargo loads, and showed declining productivity. Despite decreasing demand in some segments, fleet tonnage grew, exacerbating inefficiencies. For instance, oil tankers exhibited improvements in the Annual Efficiency Ratio (AER) but deteriorated in operational carbon intensity as measured by the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI), reflecting the need for better demand-capacity alignment.
Policy Recommendations and Future Opportunities
The introduction of the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) regulation in 2023 and the IMO’s revised GHG strategy offer pathways to meaningful emissions reductions. However, the report stresses the importance of strict enforcement and targeted strategies to unlock latent efficiency potential. Optimizing fleet utilization and aligning operational practices with demand could lead to significant carbon intensity improvements and help meet decarbonization targets.
Conclusion
The findings reveal a stagnation in emissions reductions since 2018, underscoring the urgent need for action. While the challenges are significant, they also present opportunities to enhance operational efficiency and drive fleet-wide improvements. Strengthening regulatory measures and fostering alignment between capacity and demand will be critical in achieving the IMO’s ambitious decarbonization goals and ensuring a sustainable future for the shipping industry.
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Source: Offshore Energy
