- A European freight forwarder, choosing to remain anonymous, has alleged that shipping lines are fabricating demand by canceling sailings and highlighting a potential empty container crisis.
- The forwarder asserts that carriers are attempting to inflate the market before Chinese New Year, anticipating the possibility of maintaining or increasing rates post the holiday period.
- Despite the carriers’ claims of soaring costs, the forwarder argues that demand is significantly slowing, and the purported crisis is not materializing.
An unnamed European freight forwarder has accused shipping lines of generating “artificial demand” by canceling sailings and raising concerns about an impending empty container crisis. The forwarder alleges that carriers are aiming to bolster the market ahead of Chinese New Year, with the hope of sustaining or increasing rates post the holiday season. According to the forwarder, the lines’ efforts to create demand are faltering as actual demand fails to materialize.
Discrepancies in Costs and Rates
While the forwarder acknowledges a slight increase in costs, such as the diversion of a 20,000 TEU vessel around the cape incurring an extra US$50/TEU/day, the carriers are reportedly charging around US$5,000/FEU for Asia to North European ports. The forwarder contends that rates have escalated far beyond actual cost increases, questioning the transparency of the pricing strategy adopted by the shipping lines.
Differing Views in the Analyst Community
Shipping consultant Drewry notes that the initial uncertainty in the market, stemming from the Red Sea attacks in November and December, is diminishing. Analysts suggest that space availability for February bookings is less of a concern, and Chinese manufacturers are increasing production, easing fears of shortages. However, there is a divergence of opinions within the analyst community regarding the trajectory of freight rates post the Chinese New Year.
Confusing Market Dynamics and Surcharges
Linerlytica, a Hong Kong consultancy, believes that the surge in rates has reached its peak, anticipating a post-Chinese New Year slack period. Analyst Simon Heaney from Drewry acknowledges differing views within the industry, highlighting the confusion in the market with new surcharges related to the Suez crisis. Heaney notes that the lack of guidance on how these surcharges are derived contributes to a challenging landscape for shippers, further complicating predictions about future market developments.
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Source: Container News
