- Trade tensions between the US and China are expected to persist beyond the Trump era.
- US tariffs and port fees are impacting shipping markets, particularly for Chinese-linked vessels.
- Industry leaders urge proactive strategy over a “wait-and-see” approach.
- China’s dominance in shipbuilding and cargo trade remains critical.
- Freight markets remain volatile amid geopolitical shifts.
The maritime industry should brace for sustained trade tensions between the US and China, rather than expecting clarity after political cycles, according to speakers at the Marine Money forum during Nor-Shipping in Oslo on June 4.
Although former US President Donald Trump initiated a broad wave of tariffs on Chinese and other foreign goods—including a June 3 hike on steel and aluminum duties to 50%—many believe these measures will continue shaping trade dynamics regardless of future administrations.
Waiting Not an Option, Say Industry Leaders
Despite the unpredictable nature of trade announcements, shipping companies should not adopt a passive stance, industry leaders said.
“It does feel like we’re witnessing geopolitics on steroids right now, but this is tanker shipping,” said Jeff Pribor, CFO of International Seaways. “There’s always going to be a crisis. Stop complaining about it.”
Commodity Flows and Freight React to Tensions
Trade volatility is already affecting freight flows. On June 4, Platts assessed the cost to carry refrigerated propane to China at $578/mt and butane at $545/mt—down 8% and 12% respectively since Trump took office. Most of these cargoes originate from the US.
In 2024, the US exported nearly 66 million mt of seaborne LPG, with 7.2 million mt shipped on Chinese-owned or operated vessels. Additionally, 22% of crude oil and 19% of refined product exports were transported on Chinese-built tankers, showing China’s deep entrenchment in global shipping.
China’s Shipping Clout Can’t Be Ignored
“China is one of the most—if not the most—important shipping nations,” said Hing Chao, Executive Chairman of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport. “It cannot be ignored. And at the same time, US-China tension will not go away.”
China’s dominance is evident in shipbuilding: the nation accounted for 53.3% of global output in 2024, compared to the US’s 0.1%, according to Oystein Tunsjo of the Norwegian Defence University College.
US Port Tariffs May Be Permanent
The US has also introduced new port service fees targeting Chinese-built vessels—even those owned or operated by non-Chinese entities. These fees stem from a 2024 trade union petition and were formalized during President Biden’s administration. Observers believe these measures are likely to remain in place.
Security Over Globalization?
According to Tunsjo, global trade dynamics are shifting. “The primacy of the economy is being replaced with that of security,” he said. “Globalization is being restructured to be less China-centric.”
Keep Building, Keep Moving
Despite bearish sentiment in freight markets and geopolitical concerns—including Taiwan risks, OPEC+ decisions, and sanctions on Russia—industry leaders advise forward motion.
“Don’t pause shipbuilding,” said Pribor. “Change is inevitable.”
Platts data shows that crude freight rates from the Persian Gulf to China fell to $9.73/mt as of June 4, compared to a 2025 average of $13.17/mt and a five-year average of $11.33/mt—highlighting recent volatility.
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Source: S&P Global
