Despite recent attacks by a militant group in the Red Sea, transits through the Bab el Mandeb strait remain at normal levels. This suggests that the majority of vessels using this crucial chokepoint are not significantly deterred by the renewed violence.
Unperturbed Traffic Flow in Bab el Mandeb
Recent data from July 7 to July 13 shows 244 passings of cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 DWT through the Bab el Mandeb. This figure is slightly higher than the 232 transits recorded in the preceding week (June 30 to July 6), indicating an unaltered flow of traffic despite two recent attacks on bulk carriers on July 6 and July 7.
This lack of significant impact on traffic volumes is not entirely unexpected. A previous incident in June 2024, involving the sinking of a bulk carrier by the same militant group, similarly failed to deter overall traffic volumes through the Red Sea.
Shifting Landscape and Strategic Timing of Attacks
However, the current situation in the Red Sea is subtly different from a year ago. A recent investigation revealed that larger shipping companies and operators who had diverted their fleets at the start of the crisis had begun tentatively resuming Bab el Mandeb transits since January. The recent attacks, however, are not expected to impact those who have consistently used the route throughout the crisis.
According to Dirk Siebels, a senior analyst at a risk intelligence firm, “In a nutshell, the operators of ships that have been going through the Red Sea in recent months have no reason to change their mind now because the Houthi threat has not changed.”
Arran Kennedy, an associate analyst at a risk consultancy firm, suggested that the timing of the recent attacks was likely intentional. He commented, “The militant group are masters at timing their actions to maximise the impact they have and the signal they send.” Kennedy believes they likely waited until more owners and operators were considering or preparing to resume Red Sea transits before launching these multi-wave attacks. This strategic timing, he suggests, was aimed at “blunting those well-laid plans by several months.”
Despite this analysis, not everyone is convinced that the latest attacks will necessarily extend the timeline for operators to re-route away from the Red Sea, indicating a complex and varied response within the shipping industry.
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Source: Lloyd’s List
