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The global soybean trade is undergoing a major realignment due to renewed tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
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China is increasingly sourcing soybeans from Brazil over the U.S., due to better pricing, record harvests, and fewer trade barriers.
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U.S. exports to China have seen a notable decline, while Brazil has emerged as a dominant supplier in early 2025.
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Freight rates show a weaker trend, while port congestion at Chinese terminals has surged across all vessel types.
A major shift in global agricultural trade is underway, as China intensifies its reliance on Brazilian soybean imports, reducing its traditional dependence on the United States. This development follows the latest tariff announcements and escalating U.S.–China trade tensions, a trend foreseen in November 2024 post-U.S. elections, as reported by the American Journal of Transportation.
According to Signal Ocean Platform voyage data, the structural change is clear: Brazil now leads as China’s top soybean supplier, thanks to favorable crop yields, competitive pricing, and absence of trade barriers, cementing its position as a strategic partner in China’s agri-import chain.
U.S. Soybean Exports: A Downward Slide
Historically, U.S. soybean exports to China have followed a seasonal pattern, peaking in Q1 and Q4. However, that trend has been disrupted. In March 2025, volumes fell to just 2 million tons, far below 2023 and 2024 levels. With ongoing tariff restrictions and geopolitical uncertainties, Chinese importers are pivoting toward Brazil, pushing U.S. exporters into a corner of diminished demand, falling prices, and economic strain.
Brazil’s Boom: Record Soybean Shipments to China
In contrast, Brazilian soybean exports soared past 10 million tons in both March and April 2025, outpacing previous years. Brazil’s logistical readiness, alignment with China’s seasonal buying patterns, and the favorable trade climate have positioned it as a reliable and cost-effective supplier. This trend reflects deeper economic integration between Brazil and China, reshaping the global soybean market.
SECTION 1: FREIGHT – Freight Rates ($/t) Weaker
Freight market sentiment has softened, particularly in the Capesize and Panamax segments. Capesize freight rates for voyages from Brazil to North China dropped to $19 per ton, reflecting a sharp 20% decline compared to the previous month. Panamax rates from the Continent held steady at approximately $30 per ton but still showed a 6% drop month-on-month and a significant 30% decline year-on-year. In contrast, Supramax vessels operating on the Indonesia–East Coast India route experienced a modest gain, with rates increasing by 5% month-on-month to about $9 per ton. Handysize freight rates on the NOPAC–Far East route slipped slightly below $30 per ton, showing a 6% monthly decline.
SECTION 2: SUPPLY – Ballasters (# vessels) Mixed
The supply of ballasting vessels presented a mixed picture across vessel classes and regions. Capesize vessel availability in Southeast Africa rose to 120 units, exceeding the annual average of 110 and marking a notable rise from approximately 80 vessels three weeks ago. Conversely, the number of Panamax vessels in the same region declined to 96, falling about 34 vessels short of the annual average. Supramax activity in Southeast Asia continued its upward momentum following the peak in Week 13, now slightly above the typical yearly average of 100. The Handysize segment in the NOPAC region also experienced a steady climb, with the vessel count increasing to 95 and maintaining a rising trend since the end of Week 11.
SECTION 3: DEMAND – Ton Days Mixed
Demand patterns, measured in ton days, showed mixed results across different vessel sizes. Capesize demand has been on a declining trend since peaking at the end of Week 11, although current levels remain well above the low observed in Week 9, suggesting some resilience. Panamax demand has been decreasing since its peak two weeks ago but still remains stronger than the softer levels seen in Week 8. The Supramax segment demonstrated robust demand, maintaining elevated growth that surpassed Week 11 levels. Meanwhile, Handysize demand held relatively steady over the past two weeks but exhibited a gradual decline during the latter part of the month.
SECTION 4: PORT CONGESTION – Number of Vessels Increasing
Port congestion at Chinese dry bulk terminals increased across all vessel categories. Capesize congestion rose to 142 vessels, up by 10 compared to the previous week. Panamax congestion also increased significantly, with 198 vessels reported—about 20 more than in the past two weeks. The Supramax segment saw its highest congestion level since the end of Week 9, reaching approximately 350 vessels. The Handysize segment experienced a similar trend, with congestion levels rising to 238 vessels, up by 18 from the previous week. This growing congestion highlights rising port activity and possibly longer wait times for vessel turnaround.
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Source: American Journal of Transportation
