The dry bulk market is characterized by a strong, firming Atlantic basin across the Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax segments, while the Pacific market shows a more mixed performance with strong specific trades but overall less impetus. Owners are generally gaining the initiative heading into the latter half of November.
Capesize Market
The Capesize segment is experiencing demand for late November and early December dates, driven by key routes.
- Pacific Activity (C5): Enquiries are noted from miners and operators, and volumes out of East Australia are showing a slight increase. Fixtures were concluded at the mid-USD 9 per metric ton (pmt) levels by midweek.
- Atlantic Activity (C3): The focus for the Brazil (C3) and West Africa routes is shifting to December dates. Offers for C3 are seen sub-USD 23 pmt levels, with bids around the USD 21 pmt levels.
- Tonnage Balance: While the Far East has an abundant supply of spot tonnage, the list of ballasting tonnage is heavily weighted towards the first half of December, suggesting a temporary tightness for prompt Atlantic-bound ships.
Panamax Market
The Panamax market maintained a constructive and firm tone this week, with strong underlying support in both basins.
- Atlantic Strength: The Atlantic has gained traction due to improved trans-Atlantic grain demand. While fronthaul business is limited, the market is balanced by a tightening tonnage list in the North. ECSA (East Coast South America) values are holding steady as early December demand slowly builds, supported by the stronger Pacific.
- Asian Momentum: Momentum has persisted in Asia, backed by healthy enquiry ex-Australia and Indonesia, a shorter tonnage list, and sustained period interest, which boosts confidence.
- Outlook: The general optimism is reflected in higher trending paper markets, indicating that owners are retaining the initiative as November progresses.
Supramax Market
The Supramax and Handysize sectors display a clear divergence between the basins.
- Atlantic Firmness: The Atlantic basin is showing firmer sentiment across both Supramax and Handysize sectors. This is driven by tightening tonnage availability and improved enquiry, especially from the US Gulf and the South Atlantic.
- Asian Subdued Tone: In contrast, the Asian market remains more subdued. An extended tonnage list and limited overall activity are keeping rates broadly steady, without the same upward pressure seen in the West.
- Overall Fundamentals: The fundamentals are generally balanced, with the Atlantic maintaining a positive trend while the Pacific holds steady. This has prompted some Supramax owners to show interest in securing both short and long period employment.
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Source: Fearnleys
